20090331

The WIG Index fell in the last minutes, eventually gaining +0.23%:



The CCI oscillator has made lower low, but rest of the indicators we use (RSI, decreasing price and volume, Fibo retracements) suggest uptrend continuation in medium-term.

Nevertheless, the WIG Index is still in medium-term uptrend and the level of 22700 seems to be the last bottom.

Brian's video for today here.

Some thoughts about Warren Buffett's portfolio (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/128657-the-days-of-buy-and-hold-are-over]

20090330

The WIG Index fell -3.36%:



It's quite interesting situation as we are between two gaps. And gaps tend to be covered.

Neither medium-term (daily) or long-term (weekly) uptrend have been broken. Nevertheless, we are still in risky environment and we shall expect big volatility at least.

Profit taking day - as Brian described in his video.

There are speculation about General Motors bankruptcy (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stocks-Slide-DJIA-Ends-Off/story.aspx?guid={F3DA523A-1D98-439E-B4E5-4AEF589788D6}]

20090328 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

EURPLN gained +2.25% at last session:



The medium-term (weekly) downtrend is still intact, however EURPLN might generate short-term (daily) buy signal if 4.6925 is significantly crossed.

The CHFPLN actually generated short-term buy signal (crossing 3.0575):



Nevertheless the medium-term (weekly) is still intact and from this perspective it is still correction.

Currencies are as always hard to forecast and we are limiting our analysis to simple trend following signals here.

20090327

The WIG Index fell -2.26%:



There is lot of speculation in Internet forums what the market will do next. It's one of the strongest rallies lately and we could hope for bear market's end.

However, we try not to trade on any forecasts, but on market actions. Current technical situation shows there is a uptrend in medium-term (daily) and long-term (weekly) buy signal has been generated.
If we interpret a weekly high from 10th Feb as a peek, the trend has been reversed. More cautious approach is to wait for breaking of 29000.

Not much else can be said, in both cases we shouldn't risk more than 5-7% of our total capital.

Brian's video here (not so daily lately).

20090326

Today's session was not so impressive as yesterday (-0.36%):



The WIG Index generated a long-term buy signal yesterday. Still, the WIG Index should cross 29000 at least before we can say the bear trend reversed.
However, we might try to enter the trades, as risk/profit ratio on several shares is quite encouraging.

There is quite interesting letter from one of the ex-AIG employees (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/127977-congress-handling-of-aig-bonuses-is-shameful]

20090325

Today's session was impressive (+4.23%):



The WIG Index has clearly broken the 24700 (last weekly high from 10th Feb) and generated long-term buy signal. Trends in CCI and RSI and rising volume seem to confirm the direction.

In my subjective opinion the main downtrend is still intact and we need to cross 29000 (as for now) before we can confirm long-term uptrend. However, the rally is well visible and we should consider entering the market.

As the current rally may be easily qualified as parabolic uptrend (here or here), we should rather avoid market orders and we might want to wait for correction. Also, remember the market can go in any direction at any time, therefore we should always follow the principles of money management.

PLN interest rates have been lowered by 0.25% (here).

US economy seems to be somewhat better (here or here)

US rejects China currency proposal (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5478.html]
[http://www.forex-articles.net/article-24.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/geithner-bernanke-reject-china-currency/story.aspx?guid={7B77BC42-BCED-4568-9FB4-22493E84CCB2}]
[http://www.rp.pl/artykul/2,281666.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Durable-goods-orders-jump-Feb/story.aspx?guid={F6B658F2-ACC6-4E1D-B5A4-3F4A6E38739C}]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Economic-reports-may-boost-longevity/story.aspx?guid={41D36EAF-D415-4101-9CD8-8681BA5DE589}]

20090324

The WIG Index touched the level of 24700:



It seems the forecast (or rather a guess) from this post was correct and now market is in interesting situation around the level of 24700. Crossing this level will generate buy signal.

The divergences in CCI and RSI seem to confirm the rally. Also volume suggest the uptrend continuation. Nevertheless it is still risky to open a larger long-term positions. We should wait for few sessions to see if the WIG Index stays above 24700. Proper money management is a priority here.

It seems China is worried about its USD reserves (here or here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/127435-the-un-china-want-to-ditch-the-dollar]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/127591-china-wants-to-transfer-currency-risk-back-to-the-u-s]

20090323

Today's rally was impressive (+3.18%):



Positive divergences, rising volume, breaking Fibo 61.8% and opening gap are encouraging signs. Nevertheless, we have to remember the market is still bearish.

Presented strategy is not the bottom picker and we cannot say the trend is reversed before breaking 29000 (high from 7th Jan).

However, breaking the 24700 will generate buy signal (weekly high from 2nd Feb). Depending on one's profile, it might be good idea to place few small speculative positions (which is subjective as there is no reliable technical sign of trend reversal), but only if the WIG Index keeps above 24700 for at least few sessions.

20090321 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN remains in downtrend, regardless current rally:



Crossing the last high (4.79) would be the negation of medium-term (weekly) downtrend and would make the current situation even more complex.

The downtrend on CHFPLN's chart seem to stronger:



Breaking the level of 2.88 suggest downtrend continuation, however it might be the bear trap as the decline from 3.15 - 3.25 area was pretty fast.

As always - the currencies are quite hard to forecast, therefore we limit ourselves only to classical trend following.

The Bossa.pl portal prepared a interesting post in its blog section. The article analyses quite simple but effective system for currency trading (here).

Sources:
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=867 (via Google Language Tools)]

20090320

The WIG Index gained +1.08% at today's session:



The market look encouraging. However, there is still not technical reason to buy for long-term and this rally should be still treated as a correction in primary trend.

Oil looks interesting (buy signal on long-term):



The way to invest in oil on WSE are the RCCRUAOPEN certificates, however trader should also remember there is additional risk in downtrend in USDPLN exchange rate.

TARP bonuses is a new buzzword for bonuses paid to employees of financial institutions that received Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds (here). New 90% tax was introduced on those bonuses earned during the 2008 year (here).

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tarp-bonuses.asp]
[http://news.efinancialcareers.com/DEBATE_ITEM/newsItemId-17943]

20090319

The WIG Index rallied today +1.91%:



The situation gets more and more interesting. There are no technical signs of long-term reversal, however the market looks encouraging on short-term (crossing Fibo 61.8%).

Nevertheless, it's still the best to have only money positions (but we also don't expect to catch a bear market bottom).

Also, tomorrow's session can be quite volatile as per Triple Witching Day.

Brian's video for today (here).

Almost all of the EU economies seem to shrink (EU GDP decreased -1.3%), Poland is one of the exceptions (here).

And few sad photos from The Big Picture's crisis gallery (here).

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplewitchinghour.asp]
[http://www.money.pl/gospodarka/raporty/artykul/gospodarki;ue;kurcza;sie;polska;jednym;z;wyjatkow,192,0,435136.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html]

20090318

The WIG Index fell -1.28%:



The volume was low, but only the price matters at the end. The general picture still gives an impression of correction and there are no technical signs of reversal, but we should not stick to any forecasts.

The Federal Reserve announced it will buy longer-term US Treasury bonds for 300 million USD (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fed-buy-Treasurys-attempt-boost/story.aspx?guid={99A44732-2AD2-4F2F-833A-B7FFFC85451D}]

20090317

Today's session was quite volatile (in intraday terms):



The general situaltion has not changed and we are still waiting for proper market action.

Brian's daily video here.

An interesting report about Asia's "informal economy" (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/asias-informal-economy-is-going/39653A4E-198B-4A1C-9DB0-CD93218A4913]

20090316

The WIG Index continues its impressive rally:



This uptrend gives us some hope, that the bear market is over. Unfortunately, there is still no visible HH-HL-HH pattern and therefore the buy signal cannot be generated.

The weekly chart shows us how deep we have fallen from the top (ca.-70%):



Unfortunately, technical analysis does not provide us reliable way to forecast where or when the bear market will end. Therefore, we need to observe market continuously.

Jim Kane published US market analysis with quite memorable phrase by (here):

"INDU at what did they say, a 12-year low, and they are arguing we are in a bull market? Uh-huh, pass me the crack pipe when you are done..."

Sources:
[http://www.kanetrading.com/d_comm/d_comm1/d_comm2/d_comm.html]

20090314 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

As mentioned in this post, the EURPLN and CHFPLN charts generated medium-term (weekly) sell signals:



Also CHFPLN's trend looks like it has been reversed:



Those drops were caused by government interventions and we still need to observe the markets carefully.
Trend reversals will be more reliable, when price crosses 4.39 for EURPLN and 2.88 for CHFPLN.

As for fun - Jim Cramer has been interviewed by Jon Steward (part1, part2 and part3).

Update from 2009/03/15:
Lem has published a interesting analysis of EURPLN on his blog (here, polish spoken commentary). Lem is using Elliott's Wave Theory and according to this analysis the EURPLN's uptrend is still intact.

Sources:
[http://lemansa.wordpress.com/2009/03/14/eurpln-szkolenie-part-vi/]
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220536&title=Jim-Cramer-Pt.-1]
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220538&title=Jim-Cramer-Pt.-2]
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220539&title=Jim-Cramer-Pt.-3]

20090313

Today's session was quite volatile:



The market opened high, but fell during the day. The Fibo 61.8% has been crossed, that suggest a continuation to ca.24600. However, this is just guessing game and we should not stick to those forecasts. There is no sign of primary trend reversal and we should still stay in money.

There is an interesting document floating in the Internet - American International Group's presentation about consequences of its fail (here).

Sources:
[http://www.scribd.com/doc/13112282/Aig-Systemic-090309]

20090312

The WIG Index fell -0.29% today:



The general situation has not changed. Regardless of a last few session's rally, our expectations should be rather in south direction as per downtrend.

Brian's daily video here.

Warren's Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been downgraded to AA by Fitch (here)

The sell signal has been generated in medium-term for EURPLN (charts thanks to ChartStation):



The Swiss National Bank announced it aimed to weaken the Swiss franc (here or here) and also lowered interest rates by 0.25% (here). The result is well visible on CHFPLN chart and medium-term sell signal has been generated:



Sources:
[http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml]
[http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates/snb-rate-decision-may-spark-selling-of-chf/2009-03-12.html]
[http://gielda.onet.pl/0,1932791,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090312006271&newsLang=en]

20090311

It was quite a nice session today:



The daily chart looks better, but there is still no change in longer term. The market is near 61.8% Fibo level, therefore as per Fibonacci theory and market downtrend we shall expect bounce back. On the other side the positive divergences suggest rally.
Nevertheless, those are just forecasts and we shall not rely on those. The primary trend favors downward direction and we should be away from market now.

US market rally seems to be rather suspicious to analysts (here).

Brian's daily video here.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Continuation-gains-warrants-limited-celebration/story.aspx?guid={083C4EA4-310C-4D89-A4C5-6ADD90B38455}]

20090310

The WIG Index rallied today:



Nevertheless, the general technical situation have not changed and the market still remains unfriendly place for common traders.

Brian suggest a rally in his daily video.

There is interesting interview with Warren Buffett (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/03/09/video-conflicting-buffetts/]

20090309

The WIG Index fell -1.01%:



Again, not much can be said. The positive divergence suggest correction, but current downtrend favors continuation of fall. Therefore, we shall not have any long-term positions.

Warren Buffett published its annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders (here).

Jon Stewart has created quite memorable show (here, video here).

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Stewart]
[http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/CNBC-easy-target-Jon-Stewarts/story.aspx?guid={EAB2CEB9-0F7A-444A-B131-4821D7C59315}]
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252&title=CNBC-Gives-Financial-Advice]

20090307 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

It's hard to say anything about EURPLN:



The long-term uptrend has not been broken yet, however there are few fundamental reasons suggesting that (i.e.: polish government currency  intervention, closing positions by Goldman Sachs).
Not much we can say right now, but more aggressive traders might move their stop loss to ca.4.53 level.

The trend on CHFPLN chart still looks intact:



No new signals have been generated and uptrend still looks strong.

Generally speaking, there are reasons to believe the PLN won't be weaken further. Nevertheless, we shall wait for proper market action before we alter our positions.

20090306

The week closed with impressive gain +5.80%. Today's session was also quite optimistic:



Nevertheless, still not much can be told about the market. The downtrend stays intact and this week's rally can be only qualified as a correction for now.

The US Indexes have made lower lows and the long-term sell signal has been generated (here or here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/124518-the-dow-an-historical-perspective]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/124447-s-p-index-weakness-unusually-broad]

20090305

The WIG Index fell -0.76%:



For a few sessions the WIG Index is floating around 22000. Nevertheless, the primary trend remains downtrend and there is no reason to enter trades other than short-term ones.

US markets are near important levels. The S&P500 Index is looking quite pessimistic:



I don't think we shall apply technical analysis' patterns to such a long periods; nevertheless chart looks pretty bearish and long-term sell signal has been generated.

Brian's daily video here. Another interesting video here - overall the market sentiment is very bearish now. Also, the US economic data does not suggest any improvement (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/dow-could-hit-4000/1973951D-B6AB-41F1-B91D-06032C304AFB]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Worst-job-losses-60-years/story.aspx?guid={3E4B9AA2-1748-4AE4-82BA-10F4CD13DD7A}]

20090304

Just a quick update on the WIG Index:



No signs of downtrend reversal in longer term, however the last daily high from 23th February has been broken (medium-term buy signal). Still the best position is on cash.