The market has regained some points and we are still near the top. Another gap has been created and that shows us uncertainty in the market.
Posts
20090415
15 years ago
20100430
The WIG Index gain +0.61%:
The market has regained some points and we are still near the top. Another gap has been created and that shows us uncertainty in the market.
The market has regained some points and we are still near the top. Another gap has been created and that shows us uncertainty in the market.
20100429
Unfortunately, I was not able to post new chart for the last few sessions (due to work related to my secondary project).
The WIG Index gain +1.48%:
The market has generated daily sell signal. Depending on your strategy, you might want to hold with new positions or try to buy near the resistance level (for separate companies).
Nevertheless, the primary uptrend is still strong and our strategies should be long only until market says differently.
There were few interesting papers over few last days:
Sources:
[http://www.scribd.com/doc/30533463/Fabrice-Tourre-s-emails-Belgium]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tourre-emails-show-agony-ecstasy-of-banker-life-2010-04-26]
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/adda620a-52e1-11df-813e-00144feab49a.html]
The WIG Index gain +1.48%:
The market has generated daily sell signal. Depending on your strategy, you might want to hold with new positions or try to buy near the resistance level (for separate companies).
Nevertheless, the primary uptrend is still strong and our strategies should be long only until market says differently.
There were few interesting papers over few last days:
- Fabrice Tourre's private mails (here or here). In my opinion, the Goldman Sachs releasing internal documents is strange. Aside from exposing one of its Executive Director, it provides view in their business model and investment culture.
- Greece bonds were downgraded to junk level status (here). That might spark a discussion of the Eurozone's economic fitness.
Sources:
[http://www.scribd.com/doc/30533463/Fabrice-Tourre-s-emails-Belgium]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tourre-emails-show-agony-ecstasy-of-banker-life-2010-04-26]
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/adda620a-52e1-11df-813e-00144feab49a.html]
20100426
The WIG Index gain 1.71%:
The market hovers around its highest high. Nothing new can be said at the moment, thus we have to wait for market actions.
Some thoughts about Goldman Sachs position (here).
Sources:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/10-things-you-dont-know-gs-case
The market hovers around its highest high. Nothing new can be said at the moment, thus we have to wait for market actions.
Some thoughts about Goldman Sachs position (here).
Sources:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/10-things-you-dont-know-gs-case
20100424 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN chart is still hovering near its bottom:
The CHFPLN is in consolidation:
There weren't significant changes in any of the observed currencies.
The CHFPLN is in consolidation:
There weren't significant changes in any of the observed currencies.
20100423
The WIG Index gain +1.06%:
Not much happened during last session. We are on the edge of daily sell signal; however, the primary uptrend is still strong. We won't be able to say more, until market decides direction.
The Greece formally asked European Union and International Monetary Fund for financial aid (here).
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/g20-nations-want-quick-action-on-greece-2010-04-23]
Not much happened during last session. We are on the edge of daily sell signal; however, the primary uptrend is still strong. We won't be able to say more, until market decides direction.
The Greece formally asked European Union and International Monetary Fund for financial aid (here).
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/g20-nations-want-quick-action-on-greece-2010-04-23]
20100422
The WIG Index fell -1.99%:
The market is on the edge of daily sell signal. Oscillators have fallen further.
We won't even try to guess if it is top, bottom or somewhere between. Just check your stop-loss orders and remember the market is still in uptrend.
The market is on the edge of daily sell signal. Oscillators have fallen further.
We won't even try to guess if it is top, bottom or somewhere between. Just check your stop-loss orders and remember the market is still in uptrend.
20100421
The WIG Index fell -0.57%:
The marked opened quite high, but lost all the gains during session. We have also closed Monday's gap. The oscillators are quite bearish and the 50% Fibonacci level has its weight.
Nevertheless, we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends and our strategies should be only in long positions.
The EU flights ban (due to volcanic ash) has been mostly lifted (here).
The issue is evolving one; many airlines are in desperate situation and may press their governments for financial aid (here).
Sources:
[http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/21/tech/main6418240.shtml]
[http://www.global-adventures.us/2010/04/21/volcanic-ash-airlines]
The marked opened quite high, but lost all the gains during session. We have also closed Monday's gap. The oscillators are quite bearish and the 50% Fibonacci level has its weight.
Nevertheless, we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends and our strategies should be only in long positions.
The EU flights ban (due to volcanic ash) has been mostly lifted (here).
The issue is evolving one; many airlines are in desperate situation and may press their governments for financial aid (here).
Sources:
[http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/21/tech/main6418240.shtml]
[http://www.global-adventures.us/2010/04/21/volcanic-ash-airlines]
20100420
The WIG Index gain+1.35%:
The market recovered some points today,but the technical overview has not changed too much. Oscillators signal sell, nevertheless the daily- and primary- uptrends are still intact.
It may be worthwhile to examine a wider period:
We can clearly see the Fibonacci 38.2% level acted as a resistance and later as a support (within error margins), thus we should consider the Fibonacci 50% level also.
The Fibonacci techniques are quite powerful; however, we should look at the price action at first.
The PZU initial public offering may raise 8.1 billion PLN (here or here). The IPO maximum price was set to 312.50 PLN per share.
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powszechny_Zakład_Ubezpieczeń]
[http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-19/pzu-s-initial-offering-may-raise-8-1-billion-zloty-update1-.html]
[http://in.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idINLDE63I19R20100419]
The market recovered some points today,but the technical overview has not changed too much. Oscillators signal sell, nevertheless the daily- and primary- uptrends are still intact.
It may be worthwhile to examine a wider period:
We can clearly see the Fibonacci 38.2% level acted as a resistance and later as a support (within error margins), thus we should consider the Fibonacci 50% level also.
The Fibonacci techniques are quite powerful; however, we should look at the price action at first.
The PZU initial public offering may raise 8.1 billion PLN (here or here). The IPO maximum price was set to 312.50 PLN per share.
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powszechny_Zakład_Ubezpieczeń]
[http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-19/pzu-s-initial-offering-may-raise-8-1-billion-zloty-update1-.html]
[http://in.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idINLDE63I19R20100419]
20100419
The WIG Index fell -2.33%:
The today's drop is quite significant. The daily uptrend has not been reversed yet, but we should be cautious. The oscillators suggest further fall.
As for now we should not anything. Our long positions should be well into the money now and out stop-loss orders should protect our gains.
Today's drop might be related to the SEC investigation into Goldman Sachs deals (here, here or here).
Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/199280-goldman-sachs-the-sec-and-the-question-of-timing]
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jKmhw5oXiIIzVeU3PMurt-ErcyBAD9F6D9EO0]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/16/fabrice-tourre-goldman-sa_n_540430.html]
The today's drop is quite significant. The daily uptrend has not been reversed yet, but we should be cautious. The oscillators suggest further fall.
As for now we should not anything. Our long positions should be well into the money now and out stop-loss orders should protect our gains.
Today's drop might be related to the SEC investigation into Goldman Sachs deals (here, here or here).
Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/199280-goldman-sachs-the-sec-and-the-question-of-timing]
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jKmhw5oXiIIzVeU3PMurt-ErcyBAD9F6D9EO0]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/16/fabrice-tourre-goldman-sa_n_540430.html]
20100417 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN chart did not change much since last analysis:
The EURPLN exchange rate is near its lowest levels and that is not a good sign in general.
In my (subjective) opinion we might expect a technical rally up to 4.00; nevertheless, it's pure guessing and our positions should never be against the primary trend.
The CHFPLN chart shows the currency rate is hovering near the same levels for almost a year now:
We might notice there is slight decreasing slope (highs are slightly lower); nevertheless in my opinion we should really qualify current formation only as as consolidation.
The EUR is expected to rise when Greece accesses its bailout (here).
The PLN seem to be quite stable, despite last Saturday's tragedy (this post) (here or here).
Sources:
[http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-16/greek-bailout-in-matter-of-days-to-boost-euro-ubs-says.html]
[http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Polish-markets-track-wider-trends-after-plane-crash-2010-04-12T091502Z-UPDATE-2]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100412-702839.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines]
The EURPLN exchange rate is near its lowest levels and that is not a good sign in general.
In my (subjective) opinion we might expect a technical rally up to 4.00; nevertheless, it's pure guessing and our positions should never be against the primary trend.
The CHFPLN chart shows the currency rate is hovering near the same levels for almost a year now:
We might notice there is slight decreasing slope (highs are slightly lower); nevertheless in my opinion we should really qualify current formation only as as consolidation.
The EUR is expected to rise when Greece accesses its bailout (here).
The PLN seem to be quite stable, despite last Saturday's tragedy (this post) (here or here).
Sources:
[http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-16/greek-bailout-in-matter-of-days-to-boost-euro-ubs-says.html]
[http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Polish-markets-track-wider-trends-after-plane-crash-2010-04-12T091502Z-UPDATE-2]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100412-702839.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines]
20100416
The WIG fell -0.34%:
As mentioned in this post, we have reached the 50% of bear market height (from top to bottom).
This is important level and it can have impact on stock market. Nevertheless, primary uptrend is still strong and nothing suggest a correction now, thus we are still long only.
As mentioned in this post, we have reached the 50% of bear market height (from top to bottom).
This is important level and it can have impact on stock market. Nevertheless, primary uptrend is still strong and nothing suggest a correction now, thus we are still long only.
20100415
Unfortunately, I was not able to post a chart.
We have made new highest high and our strategies should be long for a while now.
We have made new highest high and our strategies should be long for a while now.
2010414
The WIG Index gain +0.80%:
The market is at 50% Fibonacci level. This level can provide some resistance; nevertheless, the rally continues and nothing suggest uptrend reversal.
The market is at 50% Fibonacci level. This level can provide some resistance; nevertheless, the rally continues and nothing suggest uptrend reversal.
20100413
The WIG Index gain +0.40%:
The new highest high has been made and that is confirming buy signal. Not much new is to say there.
The European Union has approved 30 millions EUR financial help for Greece (here or here).
Sources:
[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/12/business/global/12drachma.html]
[http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5464455,00.html]
The new highest high has been made and that is confirming buy signal. Not much new is to say there.
The European Union has approved 30 millions EUR financial help for Greece (here or here).
Sources:
[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/12/business/global/12drachma.html]
[http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5464455,00.html]
20100412
The WIG Index gain +0.67%:
There wasn't much of a reaction in polish stock market after Saturday's accident (this post) and we are still continuing the rally.
There is also not much to think of and we shall still ride this wave.
America defends itself against cheap commodities from China with anti-dumping duties (here). The people in China won't like it; however, the China-America relationship is much more complex (here).
Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/bull-or-bear-neither]
[http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-04/10/c_13245019.htm]
[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article7094283.ece]
There wasn't much of a reaction in polish stock market after Saturday's accident (this post) and we are still continuing the rally.
There is also not much to think of and we shall still ride this wave.
America defends itself against cheap commodities from China with anti-dumping duties (here). The people in China won't like it; however, the China-America relationship is much more complex (here).
Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/bull-or-bear-neither]
[http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-04/10/c_13245019.htm]
[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article7094283.ece]
20100410 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is failing fruther:
The CHFPLN chart is quite neutral:
There is nothing new to say since last post: the EURPLN is quite bearish, the CHFPLN is still near technical support of 2.65. Both currencies are in technical primary downtrend.
Today's news about presidential plane crash (this post) can have impact on currency market.
The CHFPLN chart is quite neutral:
There is nothing new to say since last post: the EURPLN is quite bearish, the CHFPLN is still near technical support of 2.65. Both currencies are in technical primary downtrend.
Today's news about presidential plane crash (this post) can have impact on currency market.
20100410 - Presidential Plane Crash
The president of Poland, Lech Kaczynski has died in plane crash, around 08:56 today's morning (here, here or here). Aside from Lech Kaczynski and his wife, many polish important political figures are reported to be on board (here). The video with quick analysis of impact (here).
The most complex accident's description from Wikipedia (here).
Aside from impact on polish government, we should also expect reaction on polish stock market and currency market.
Sources:
[http://wiadomosci.wp.pl/kat,1342,title,Rozbil-sie-samolot-z-Lechem-Kaczynskim-na-pokladzie---nikt-nie-przezyl-katastrofy,wid,12158322,wiadomosc.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/04/10/general-eu-russia-plane-crash_7503365.html]
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nucwf6DvpG4]
[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/world/europe/11poland.html]
[http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/2153159,11,lista_osob_na_pokladzie_tupolewa,item.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Polish_Air_Force_Tu-154_crash]
The most complex accident's description from Wikipedia (here).
Aside from impact on polish government, we should also expect reaction on polish stock market and currency market.
Sources:
[http://wiadomosci.wp.pl/kat,1342,title,Rozbil-sie-samolot-z-Lechem-Kaczynskim-na-pokladzie---nikt-nie-przezyl-katastrofy,wid,12158322,wiadomosc.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/04/10/general-eu-russia-plane-crash_7503365.html]
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nucwf6DvpG4]
[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/world/europe/11poland.html]
[http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/2153159,11,lista_osob_na_pokladzie_tupolewa,item.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Polish_Air_Force_Tu-154_crash]
20100409
The WIG Index gain +1.28%:
The market regained some points from yesterday's correction.
Nevertheless, those daily swings do not change the overall situation and sentiment seems to be still quite bullish.
Note from 2010/04/10:
The today's presidential plane crash (this post) can have impact on polish market.
There is also a chance that Warsaw Stock Exchange will be closed on Monday.
The market regained some points from yesterday's correction.
Nevertheless, those daily swings do not change the overall situation and sentiment seems to be still quite bullish.
Note from 2010/04/10:
The today's presidential plane crash (this post) can have impact on polish market.
There is also a chance that Warsaw Stock Exchange will be closed on Monday.
20100408
The WIG Index fell -1.36%:
We are experiencing market correction; nevertheless the oscillators are not confirming the fall as of now and volume is small.
The best we can do at the moment is to observe only.
We are experiencing market correction; nevertheless the oscillators are not confirming the fall as of now and volume is small.
The best we can do at the moment is to observe only.
20100407
The WIG Index fell -0.58%:
The general situation has not been changed for a while and most of technical signs seem to confirm bull market.
There is no reason to make any commentary; we won't be able to guess the top anyway. Just ride current rally and protect gains with stop-loss orders.
There are some thoughts about polish Social Security (here). It looks like the future pensioners in Poland should count only on themselves.
There is quite interesting paper about huge obligations of European Countries (here). It seems that future pensions are the common problem in European Union.
Sources:
[http://praca.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/411519,bielecki_zus_bis_to_niezle_rozwiazanie.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.cato.org/pubs/articles/gokhale-NCPA-319.pdf]
The general situation has not been changed for a while and most of technical signs seem to confirm bull market.
There is no reason to make any commentary; we won't be able to guess the top anyway. Just ride current rally and protect gains with stop-loss orders.
There are some thoughts about polish Social Security (here). It looks like the future pensioners in Poland should count only on themselves.
There is quite interesting paper about huge obligations of European Countries (here). It seems that future pensions are the common problem in European Union.
Sources:
[http://praca.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/411519,bielecki_zus_bis_to_niezle_rozwiazanie.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.cato.org/pubs/articles/gokhale-NCPA-319.pdf]
20100406
The WIG Index fell -0.95%:
Today market rallied and new highest high has been made. That is a confirming buy signal, but our positions should be in money already.
There is not much to say; we shall rally this wave to the end.
Today market rallied and new highest high has been made. That is a confirming buy signal, but our positions should be in money already.
There is not much to say; we shall rally this wave to the end.
20100403 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN:
The EURPLN has experienced further fall and that is clear sell signal.
The CHFPLN chart does look much stronger than the chart above. Nevertheless, we shall keep in mind that both currencies are in primary downtrend:
The EURPLN has experienced further fall and that is clear sell signal.
The CHFPLN chart does look much stronger than the chart above. Nevertheless, we shall keep in mind that both currencies are in primary downtrend:
20100401
The WIG Index gain +1.66%:
The rally continues and that is everything we can say at the moment.
Just keep moving your stop-loss orders and don't try to outsmart the market.
The Poles are not saving for retirement (here). If we relate that to bad demographic situation (this post) and huge long-term Poland's debt (here), that will show uncool future for polish pensioners.
Sources:
[http://blogi.ifin24.pl/trystero/2010/02/21/‘prawdziwy’-dlug-polski-208-czy-1550-pkb (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/51337,Polacy-nadal-odkladaja-oszczedzanie-na-emeryture,1,39,1.html (via Google Language Tools]
The rally continues and that is everything we can say at the moment.
Just keep moving your stop-loss orders and don't try to outsmart the market.
The Poles are not saving for retirement (here). If we relate that to bad demographic situation (this post) and huge long-term Poland's debt (here), that will show uncool future for polish pensioners.
Sources:
[http://blogi.ifin24.pl/trystero/2010/02/21/‘prawdziwy’-dlug-polski-208-czy-1550-pkb (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/51337,Polacy-nadal-odkladaja-oszczedzanie-na-emeryture,1,39,1.html (via Google Language Tools]
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