20080903

The WIG Index continues its rally in quite precise manner:



The WIG20 Index is just under long-term trend line. The growing volume is quite promising:



Take a look at intraday chart (thanks to Stooq). I have also included some sort of fantasy on chart (red lines look suggestive, aren't they?):



The channel has been broken in last week and new uptrend emerged. Nevertheless, the true test will be the level of 42500. I won't even pretend to have slightest idea what's going on. Therefore, I believe it is the best to wait for some pattern to clarify.

I've got some mails asking about CHFPLN. Ca.80% of polish mortgages are in Swiss franc (due to low interest rates), therefore many people (not only investors) are exposed to CHFPLN exchange rates.
Since 2004, CHFPLN have lost about 30% of it's value. That's good for all the people who took credit then. Where are we now?



Since 2004 to the middle of 2007 we were in clear descending triangle, however in second half of 2007 the downtrend become faster, reaching (and crossing) "magical" support of 2.000 just few weeks ago. Downtrend is strong, but right now we are in quite dynamic retracement, which first potential resistance area ca. 2.12-2.16 (it is hard to point exact values due to time factor).
Also, the officials are planing to increate interest rates again (here). That should strengthen the PLN even more.

Update:
Something just for good laugh - The Spiral miniseries. It's very on time now.

Sources:
[http://www.money.pl/banki/wiadomosci/artykul/,124,0,365948.html?p=md (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://stooq.pl/q/?s=chfpln]
[http://equityprivate.typepad.com]

20080902

The WIG Index has broken out from channel today with big volume and it's close to important resistance of 42500:



The WIG20 Index reached the long-term line:



This week can be very important as we have a chance to reverse a medium-term trend now. If we break the 42500 (and confirm it later) - that could be interpreted as a buy signal. Nevertheless, the move started exactly from 61.8% Fibo (from Jun's top), which does not show much bullishness.
As for now the wide market is still guilty and risky.

The polish mutual funds were reducing their exposure for stocks for last few weeks. This goes for the general investment stocks funds:



and also the pension funds:



The investment funds do not have a choice - they have to sell or buy when requested, however the pension funds are much more autonomous in their business. It looks like pension funds managers lost faith in the Efficient Market Hypothesis and those are first pensions' funds sales since Jul 2007 (Holder news). The mutual funds together have about one third of the market capitalization, thus I will seriously consider their opinion.
(this part is shamelessly stolen from UFO forum (polish))

Sources:
[http://www.holder.com.pl/?grupa=AKP_UN]
[http://www.holder.com.pl/?grupa=SWP_XX]
[http://www.holder.com.pl/fm.shtml?id=4139&fm=11154&c=38275289022 (via Google Language)]

20080901

Note that from today exchange sessions are 30 minutes longer. I believe brokers are not so happy as they have to wake up earlier.

The WIG Index still looks pretty undecided:



The WIG20 Index also does not know what to do:



Intraday chart (thanks to Stooq) looks very messy::



Everything is possible. We can notice there is resistance ca.40500, but such levels can be easily taken in few hours. The RSI indicator shows negative divergence and seems to confirm the double tops formation, but it is too early to say - it can be reversed shoulder-head-shoulder as well (however there is a little symmetry).

I'm losing trust in indicators. I'm not sure if they are useful on intraday charts. Take a look at 4 hrs time-frame from today - it tells a different story (positive divergence):



Sources:
[http://biznes.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/30966,brokerzy_nie_zatrudniaja_pracownikow_w_zwiazku_z_dluzsza_sesja_na_gieldzie.html (translated via Google Language Tools)]