20080903

The WIG Index continues its rally in quite precise manner:



The WIG20 Index is just under long-term trend line. The growing volume is quite promising:



Take a look at intraday chart (thanks to Stooq). I have also included some sort of fantasy on chart (red lines look suggestive, aren't they?):



The channel has been broken in last week and new uptrend emerged. Nevertheless, the true test will be the level of 42500. I won't even pretend to have slightest idea what's going on. Therefore, I believe it is the best to wait for some pattern to clarify.

I've got some mails asking about CHFPLN. Ca.80% of polish mortgages are in Swiss franc (due to low interest rates), therefore many people (not only investors) are exposed to CHFPLN exchange rates.
Since 2004, CHFPLN have lost about 30% of it's value. That's good for all the people who took credit then. Where are we now?



Since 2004 to the middle of 2007 we were in clear descending triangle, however in second half of 2007 the downtrend become faster, reaching (and crossing) "magical" support of 2.000 just few weeks ago. Downtrend is strong, but right now we are in quite dynamic retracement, which first potential resistance area ca. 2.12-2.16 (it is hard to point exact values due to time factor).
Also, the officials are planing to increate interest rates again (here). That should strengthen the PLN even more.

Update:
Something just for good laugh - The Spiral miniseries. It's very on time now.

Sources:
[http://www.money.pl/banki/wiadomosci/artykul/,124,0,365948.html?p=md (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://stooq.pl/q/?s=chfpln]
[http://equityprivate.typepad.com]