20080910

The uptrend looks like it has been broken. This gives us unpleasant look with triangle formation (altered from the last post):



Similar situation on the WIG20 Index chart:



Of course, until lines are confirmed it can be just false move, however I have drawn potential fails from those formations. We need to wait until the line is confirmed as resistance.

The 1-hour intraday chart (thanks to Stooq) clearly shows the uptrend breakout; however the last low is scratched but still not taken:



The EURPLN (from ChartStation) dropped a bit today, but it's still above the uptrend line:



After such dynamic rally, the correction is unavoidable. We can't tell if the rally will continue, but todays move shows lots of volatility for sure.

20080909

It seems market did not want to close the gap now and we are still well under it:



The WIG20 Index also moves just below its gap:



The wide marked could not close the gap, even after dynamic rally in US. That's not a bullish signal for sure. Nevertheless, the market still does not make lower low and keeps above trend line.

The US market showed tremendous volatility (take a look at Brian Shannon video here) and closed very low. I wonder how WSE will react to that and if the trendlines will hold tomorrow.

20080908

The WIG Index chart is telling us some interesting things today. The price bounced from support line, confirming it:



The WIG20 Index is slower then the rest of the market:



The wide market seems to have a potential for rally from triangle formation projection. Remember, that potential does not mean there will be any rally. The support line has been confirmed and the next obstacle is the gap from last Friday. Seeing the US close I guess the gap will be covered tomorrow (but that's just my thought and the marked does not care).

In my opinion, it is still not the time to open the long positions not he short ones (as if we had short positions on WSE), but the market does not look so bearish now (more like consolidation?), especially on shorter timeframe. I know today's session is artificial (see news at the end of this post), but it should also be included in the price soon.

Also, few days ago oil has broken few important supports: Fibo 38.2%, 200-day moving average, long-term uptrend line and also potential resistance at 108:







That gives us good opportunity for shorting oil again. Nevertheless, note another two Fibo levels are close by (99 & 88), thus it is more risky than previous transaction.

The most interesting news are saved at the end:
US government will invest up to 100 billion USD in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The whole article can be found here with prelude here. I don't quite understand what impact it can have on US mortgages in general, but it should have positive impact on all global markets (especially Asia markets, here) as the value of the CMO is, whatsoever, secured by US government now.
Unfortunately, market becomes more and more chaotic with every political action and loses it forecasting ability. This also affects technical analysis greatly.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayjUlfxAd5GU&]
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a4cb13a-7d04-11dd-8d59-000077b07658.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-government-takes-control-fannie/story.aspx?guid={C99D796B-CB3C-47A8-8A56-284A9A4D5C85}]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-reportedly-set-bail-out/story.aspx?guid={46D1439E-A2C4-418C-9BE0-09BE0B9EE60D}]