20080908

The WIG Index chart is telling us some interesting things today. The price bounced from support line, confirming it:



The WIG20 Index is slower then the rest of the market:



The wide market seems to have a potential for rally from triangle formation projection. Remember, that potential does not mean there will be any rally. The support line has been confirmed and the next obstacle is the gap from last Friday. Seeing the US close I guess the gap will be covered tomorrow (but that's just my thought and the marked does not care).

In my opinion, it is still not the time to open the long positions not he short ones (as if we had short positions on WSE), but the market does not look so bearish now (more like consolidation?), especially on shorter timeframe. I know today's session is artificial (see news at the end of this post), but it should also be included in the price soon.

Also, few days ago oil has broken few important supports: Fibo 38.2%, 200-day moving average, long-term uptrend line and also potential resistance at 108:







That gives us good opportunity for shorting oil again. Nevertheless, note another two Fibo levels are close by (99 & 88), thus it is more risky than previous transaction.

The most interesting news are saved at the end:
US government will invest up to 100 billion USD in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The whole article can be found here with prelude here. I don't quite understand what impact it can have on US mortgages in general, but it should have positive impact on all global markets (especially Asia markets, here) as the value of the CMO is, whatsoever, secured by US government now.
Unfortunately, market becomes more and more chaotic with every political action and loses it forecasting ability. This also affects technical analysis greatly.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayjUlfxAd5GU&]
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a4cb13a-7d04-11dd-8d59-000077b07658.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-government-takes-control-fannie/story.aspx?guid={C99D796B-CB3C-47A8-8A56-284A9A4D5C85}]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-reportedly-set-bail-out/story.aspx?guid={46D1439E-A2C4-418C-9BE0-09BE0B9EE60D}]