20081004 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

EURPLN still looks confusing, we might be in triangle formation (as per chart), but it's really too soon to tell this:



As mentioned in this post, the CHFPLN weekly chart moves well within its channel:



LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) is the rate banks charge each other for short-term loans. LIBOR is also used as the base for interest on mortgages. As the 80% of polish mortgages are in CHF, we are mostly interested in 3-months and 6-months CHF LIBOR:



Note sharp increase in Sep, especially in short-term rates. Charging more for the lending means the European banks are not so sure of each other as before and the risk involved is bigger now. And more risk involved means higher mortgage payments.

Also, here (via Google Language Tools) is an article from Piotr Kuczynski about financial crisis. In general, I have mixed feelings about his analyses, but reading this shouldn't kill anyone.

Update from 2008/10/06:
The CHFPLN crossed the channel band:



In my opinion such a breakout is still tolerable (look at spike 17th Mar), but we should observe the price continuously right now.

Sources:
[http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/PW_MChartOmni.exe/save:economagic!LiborEC1m3m6m12m]
[http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chflib.shtml]
[http://www.netdania.com/Products/ChartStation/ChartStation.aspx]
[http://kuczynski.blogbank.pl/2008/08/21/credo-na-zakonczenie-lata/ (via Google Language Tools)]