20080930

Today's rally has finished above yesterdays close, covering the gap from 19th Sep:



The WIG20 Index looks little bit more optimistic:



The session today gave me an impression of a reflexive rebounce, but we shall not expect anything. We shall just react. From technical point of view the tomorrow's session can be critical. We have a possibility to create double bottom (with target price ca.41800, but not before we take out the last high) or to make a lower-low (which will give us another strong long-term signal).

There are tons of news and articles commenting current economy situation (check MarketWatch, Forbes or Bloomberg). Therefore, I don't think you need another pile of information. Most of news are really pessimistic - maybe we are at true bottom now? Only the time can show that, right now it is safer to assume we are still in bear market.

Let's take a look at currencies then. The CHFPLN is high (subjective opinion), but it well keeps to its channel as for now:



The EURPLN looks much more hectic:



The price made the higher low and crossed the important level of 3.37, but it still has not taken the previous high (3.49). It's hard to say what is coming next (triangle maybe?), thus we need to observe it.

Update from 01/10/2008:
As for now it seems the market has choosen the first option and we are in short-term up-trend. Note the possible formation of double bottom with target ca.41800. I would not consider it a reliable formation before we cross at least the level of 39000:



Like Brian Shannon says: any rally in a bear market should be guilty till proven innocent. Trading against the trend (sell signal in long-term chart) is risky business and we generally are not skilled enough to do it.

Sources:
[http://www.gracecheng.com/stocks/2008/09/30/any-rally-in-a-bear-market-should-be-guilty-till-proven-innocent/]
[http://www.marketwatch.com]
[http://www.forbes.com]
[http://www.bloomberg.com]