20090630

The WIG Index lost -0.35%:



The market lost all of its gains in the last several minutes of trading. The volume was higher than yesterday, but still low. Oscillators are confirming the fall.

General situation does not encouraging and we should not think of new positions unless the daily trend recover.

Bernard Madoff has been sentenced to 150 years in prison (here). Video report here.

Some thoughts about USD in long term (here).

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124604151653862301.html]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/146159-is-the-dollar-dead-in-the-long-run]
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eU4FI4yEvI]

20090629

The WIG Index gained +0.87% with quite small volume:



Nothing new can be said about general situation.
The small volume of fall can be positive sign, but the broken daily trend and downtrend in oscillators are discouraging from entering any trades.

Opinion poll results for the US stock market (here).

Please keep in mind, that some further entries can be delayed, due to personal reasons. It is quite hard to always keep with daily publications without any organized resources and process, especially when trading is not the main source of income.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/145922-stock-market-buy-hold-or-sell-poll-results]

20090627 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN has fallen few points in this week:



The CHFPLN registered quite fast drop on Wednesday; there are rumors about Swiss National Bank intervening (here):



Nothing really changed in our situation. Both currencies' charts are still confusing.

Nevertheless, I'm still quite bearish on those currencies, especially on the CHFPLN. Both, Swiss National Bank and National Bank of Poland have intervened to weaken the Swiss Franc and those are a powerful allies on polish mortgage owners side. However, this is my own and very subjective opinion.

Sources:
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8575219]

20090626

The WIG Index gained +0.54%:



The volume was very small and it seems the market is undecided. The broken daily trend, decreasing volume and falling oscillators are not encouraging to enter any trades.

Brett Steenbarger published quite interesting article about his experiences as traders' coach (here).

Lunch with Warren Buffett has been sold for 1.68 million USD on eBay auction (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/145317-five-mistakes-of-developing-traders]
[http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290325279833]

20090625

The WIG Index fell -0.62%:



General outlook is still confusing: clear reversal on daily trend (with oscillators' confirmations), but weekly uptrend is still intact.

Not much else can be said. Depending on your strategy, you might want to be out of market or trying to ride current swing. However, I'm rather careful now.

20090624

The WIG Index gain +1.30%:



Situation is quite confusing. The weekly uptrend is still intact, but the daily trend has been reversed and it's confirmed by oscillators.

I don't think we shall enter any new positions until the market starts to recover and daily trend is up again (but this is subjective opinion). Depending on trader's strategy there can be few approaches to setups like those, but always mind the proper money management.

There is an interesting interview with former financial advisor (here) working in bank.

Monetary Policy Council lowered interest rates by 0.25% to 3.50% for the main reference rate (here).

Sources:
[http://wyborcza.pl/biznes/1,99154,6742264,Skad_taka_pazernosc_bankow_.html?as=1&ias=4 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://gielda.onet.pl/0,1996076,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20090623

The WIG Index fell -0.26%:



The daily sell signal was generated on Monday, but the weekly uptrend is still intact. The volume increased over last few sessions, which is not a good sign. Both oscillators have made lower low, therefore divergences confirmed the fall.

We might also want to draw Head-and-Shoulders formation on 1-hour chart with target price ca.29000 (90% of the move has been already reached):



The fell was very dynamic and unfortunately, some of our positions were surely liquidated. However, as the daily uptrend has been broken we should not attempt to enter the market immediately.

Current situation is quite dangerous and catching falling knives usually is painful.

The European Commission will take a decision on the opening of the excessive deficit procedure against the Poland (here).

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/0,1994597,wiadomosci.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp]

20090622

Monday's session was very interesting one; daily sell signal has been generated.
However, due to personal reasons, I was not able to publish a entry.

The session was quite volatile and showed us why risk management is important:



Some interesting links from weekend:

• Commodities correction (here).


• USD breakout (here).


• Defaults of US companies (here).


• Three banks closed in US (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144287-commodities-today-the-correction-has-arrived]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144297-u-s-dollar-breakout-on-the-horizon]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144406-bankruptcies-of-large-u-s-corporations-soar]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/georgia-north-carolina-banks-closed-by-regulators]

20090620 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN slowly, but steadily continues its rally:



The CHFPLN chart is similar:



Both currencies are next to generating the buy signal.
I find current setup quite confusing, but the price is what counts, not our beliefs.

The Swiss National Bank intends to lower three-month CHF LIBOR rate to ca.0.25% (currently: 0.40%) (here).

Sources:
[http://www.finanse.egospodarka.pl/41800,Kurs-franka-do-euro-SNB-za-oslabieniem,1,48,1.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20090619

The WIG Index gained +1.53%:



The volume was quite high today, however we should not forget today was Triple Witching day. We did not cross the 30800 today and that is a good sign.
However, the general situation is unclear and we have to wait for market action. Of course, weekly uptrend is intact and we should still have long positions.

Holder portal has published funds buy/sell transaction ratio in May (here):



It seems the mutual funds were selling shares in May, but the polish pension funds (OFE) were buying them.

Quite interesting S&P500 analysis (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/144187-s-p-500-fundamental-and-technical-convergence]
[http://www.holder.com.pl/fm.shtml?id=7231&fm=11154&c=30348801004 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otwarty_fundusz_emerytalny (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplewitchinghour.asp]

20090618

The WIG Index fell -0.14%:



We are very close to generate daily sell signal (ca.30800), but the price is still within error margin. The volume today was surprisingly low and that might mean the market is undecided.
Nevertheless, the weekly uptrend is intact and everything else is just guessing game.

Over last couple of sessions some of our positions were probably shaken out and considering general uncertainty, we should not attempt to reenter them immediately.

20090617

The WIG Index significantly fell -2.09%:



The volume is barely higher, but it's still decreasing. Oscillators show negative divergences as lower low were made.
The overall sentiment is rather negative, but as for now there are no technical signs of trend reversal on wider time frames.

There is an interesting tool - McClellan Oscillator (here).

Good summarizing of general situation in US; few self-explaining charts can be also found there (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/16/mcclellan-oscillator-the-trend-is]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143661-looking-at-this-recession-in-a-historical-context]

20090616

The WIG Index opened quite low, but recovered most of its loss and finished -0.40%:



Nothing new can be said - there are no technical sings of trend reversal, but the volume tells us to be careful.
We have to simply wait for market actions.

FED might consider selling options to ease an imbalance in interest rate derivatives (here).

Interesting technical view on the S&P500 (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flip-flopping-moving-averages-point-to-momentum]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avcmU5N8uBY0]

20090615

The WIG Index finished with quite a loss -1.38%:



The weekly trend is intact and therefore we should still be in long positions now.

The gains are not accompanied by high volume and that might be a warning sign.
The only thing we can control is risk; thus, if you are entering transactions now, make sure the profit/risk ratio is high enough.
However, I assume most of our capital is already invested and our positions are mostly in the money. That gives us some risk-buffer in case of trend reversal.

Interesting analysis about markets in Europe (here).

Quite interesting study about investor's behaviour (here).

Thoughts and indicators for US economy (here). Buy signal on DJIA (here).

More on USD (here and here) and treasury bonds (here).

Lem's blog won't be free anymore. New site available here.

Sources:
[http://www.qaib.com/showresource.aspx?URI=advisoreditionfreelook&Type=FreeLook]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/142965-u-s-indicators-on-track-for-q4-economic-recovery]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143023-a-socratic-dialogue-fearing-the-collapse-of-u-s-treasury-bond-prices]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143034-will-the-u-s-dollar-crash]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abKnXn3puSjY]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143180-preview-from-europe-markets-tread-water-on-low-volume]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/143217-long-term-market-trends-a-djia-buy-signal-indicator]

20090613 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN does not have clear situation:



The CHFPLN chart also shows a lot of indecision:



Both currencies have been moving within the same areas for several weeks.
Not much can be said until the price breaks one of those levels.

20090612

The WIG Index gained +1.40%:



The weekly buy signal has been generated. Today's session was a nice rally, however it was not confirmed by volume.
The volume is decreasing, the oscillators are not giving any signals.

Generally speaking, current situation is unclear. Nevertheless, the price is the most important and we play without emotions and forecasting. Not much else can be said right now.

20090610

We have had quite a rally today:



The WIG Index gained impressive +1.90% and it's at the level of previous high. Oscillators are confusing, however the volume is clearly decreasing.

The price is the most important and weekly uptrend is still intact. However, the volume does not confirm today's rally and I believe we should be careful now.
The most of our positions was made at lower levels and generally should be in the money now. Thus, the risk of trend reversal is bearable.

California Budget Crisis explained by John Steward (here).

Update from 2009/06/11:
I forgot to mention there is no session this Thursday.

There is quite interesting article about China and their role (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=230057&title=youre-welcome-california-budget]
[http://longterm.bblog.pl/wpis,chiny;nie;uratuja;swiata,26125.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20090609

The WIG Index gained +1.58%:



Well, not much can be said as per today's session either. Volume is still decreasing, the interpretation of oscillators is too subjective.
As per weekly uptrend we should be entering positions (mind stop-losses) and hoping the trend won't reverse. Everything else is just guessing game.

The US unemployment reports can be tricky (here). Good summarizing of unemployment values can be found here.

Below are view-per-day stats from blog:



It seems technical analysis is all around us ;-)

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/12/08/employment-report-much-worse-than-reported/]
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/08/jobless-rate-soars-technology-to-blame/]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis]

20090608

The WIG Index fell significantly -1.80%:



The general situation has not changed and it's hard to tell anything new. The volume was low today and that can be encouraging sign.

We not trying to forecast the market - until the market significantly breaks the level of 29000 the uptrend is intact and potential correction can be a good place to enter few trades.

Quite optimistic article about recent moves in Baltic Dry Index (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141794-baltic-dry-index-rise-indicates-good-economic-tidings]
[http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm]

20090606 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN shows quite unclear situation:



The CHFPLN chart is not helping either:



Both currencies become more problematic to analyze. The pattern of LL & LH is not so obvious now and it's generally hard to say anything about current situation. Weekly downtrend has not been negated yet and odds favor the price fall.

We shall also consider trend reversal. The charts show the potential targets for upward breakout from symmetrical triangle formations. However, triangles usually form during a trend as a continuation pattern. Nevertheless, remember that currencies can be very surprising and chart patterns are not reliable here.

Not much else can be said - we have to wait for further movements and hope they clarify the situation.

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle]

20090605

The WIG Index fell -0.19%:



The market opened quite high, but eventually lost all gains in last hour of the session. Nevertheless, as the higher high has been made, the weekly buy signal was generated.
Both oscillators are giving mixed signals.

The gains are not confirmed by volume, therefore caution is advised. Nevertheless, price is making higher highs and that is the only thing that counts.

Employment data from US is still looks bad (here or here), but stock market is growing (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/payrolls-fall-345000-jobless-rate-rises-to-94-20096583100]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141586-unemployment-data-nothing-to-cheer-about]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-close-around-flat-line-in-volatile-trade]

20090604

The WIG Index gained +1.36%:



Few things happened over the week. The WIG Index broke 30700 and the weekly buy signal has been generated. Nevertheless, the breakout has not been accompanied by high volume. The oscillators are giving mixed signs, the volume is decreasing. It is hard to tell those are positive signals.

However, the price pays, not our opinions. Our positions should be in the money right now and we should not exit the market until the price says so.

Some thoughts on Latvia's trouble (here).

US market has been rallying lately (here). Finance sector is quite popular among traders (here).

Interesting words from president of MasterCard’s U.S. markets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/141370-the-trouble-with-latvia-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bellwether-of-financial-sector-delivers-for-bulls]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arDe3NYD.WWY]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acsP1tdVTN6g]