20091031 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN rallied this week, but the daily buy signal has not been not generated yet:



The CHFPLN chart is alike:



Both currencies showed us some volatility in past period.
Nevertheless, the primary trend is still down. As per technical approach, unless primary downtrend breaks, those rallies should be used to liquidate our long positions.

20091030

The WIG Index fell -0.87%:



The general outlook is quite confusing. The daily and primary uptrend are still intact, nevertheless oscillators are not confirming last high. The today's volume was low and there are not many clues elsewhere.
In such setup it is the best to refrain from any transactions, until situation clarifies itself.

US stock markets did not look encouraging today (here).
However, S&P500 is still above the last low (ca.1020 from 2nd October) and primary uptrend is still intact.

An interesting paper on oil available resources (here).

Good analysis of moving average crossovers (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKuVVFkJXvso]
[http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/09/21/moving-average-crossovers-debunked]
[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this]

20091029

The WIG Index gained +1.13%:



We have had quite volatile session today. The WIG Index has been hovering near the level of ca.38000 for the first half of the session and then rapidly rallied to ca.38600-38800.
Nevertheless, the general situation has not changed and we are still in daily and primary uptrend.

US market current technical analysis (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/169708-recent-market-weakness-the-technical-damage]

20091028

The WIG Index fell -2.09%:



Oscillators are on the edge of showing negative divergence and today's fall has been accompanied by high volume, which is not a good sign.
However, we shall not act on feelings, but on market actions and primary trend is still intact.

Bearish US housing news (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aqNlTvgoZ6iA]

20091027

The WIG Index fell -1.84%:



The market continued its fall, however the daily uptrend has not been broken yet.
Technically speaking, we shall treat current swing only as a correction now.

Interesting article about China's future role in world economy (here).

Three interesting lectures from George Soros via SeekingAlpha (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/168664-u-s-empire-in-decline-makes-way-for-china]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/168788-george-soros-on-the-global-economy-china-and-regulation]

20091026

Unfortunately, I was not able to put a chart today.

We closed the gap from Friday; today's low might be a support for tomorrow, however it's just guessing game.
Both, weekly- and daily-, uptrends are intact and we shall stick to our long positions as for now.

20091024 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN has generated daily sell signal during this week:



The CHFPLN also has made lower low (and daily sell signal has triggered):



Currencies are often confusing and we shall not expect anything in Forex market.
The primary trend is still down; nevertheless hoped for further PLN weakness, so we could sell our currency positions higher.

20091023

The WIG Index gained +1.49%:



Obviously, the buy signal has been finally generated accompanied with increased volume. Therefore, primary uptrend has been reconfirmed. The RSI confirms the rally (oscillator's higher high), the CCI still stays neutral.

AppFund's interpretation of current setup (here).

Few interesting points on US housing prices (here).

Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/existing-home-sales-fall-in-september-09]
[http://appfunds.blogspot.com/2009/10/korba-sie-zaciea.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20091022

The WIG Index closed quite neutrally +0.06%:



Again, the volume was quite low, neither the high is not confirmed by oscillators. In my (subjective) opinion that marks current breakout as unreliable.
However, actual uptrend is still intact and we shall hold long positions untill they are negated.

20091021

The WIG Index gained +0.71%:



Despite today's gain, we are still in error margin. Also, I'm still quite reluctant of calling a new buy signal as breaking the important resistance should be accompanied by volume's hike. The volume is quite low and also oscillators do not confirm new high.

Trystero has published quite good summary of incoming Polish Energy Group IPO (here).
There is another interesting paper. This offering looks interesting, however note there is no reliable way of controlling the risk.

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering]
[http://blogi.ifin24.pl/trystero/2009/10/19/zanim-kupisz-akcje-pge/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.expander.pl/warto-wiedziec/wiadomosci/raporty-i-analizy-szczegoly,details,164 (via Google Language Tools)]

20091020

The WIG Index gained +0.91%:



The volume was quite low and market barely crossed the 39300; we also don't have confirmation on oscillators.
Thus, in my opinion, we need more solid confirmation of this high, before we can signal buy.

Quite interesting findings on finance sector situation (here).

The EURPLN and CHFPLN generated daily sell signals today, nevertheless they still require confirmation:





Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/167419-rally-or-no-rally-regional-banks-lag]

20091019

The WIG Index gained +1.40%:



Today's volume was rather low; the oscillators are still giving mixed signals.
The price is near the important level of ca.39300.

S&P500 has made higher high, thus the odds are the rally will be continued.

20091017 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN continues its rally:



The CHFPLN chart looks alike:



Note, the primary downtrend is still intact. As per theory we shall use those rallies to liquidate our Euro positions.

20091016

The WIG Index lost -0.40%:



Oscillators are still giving mixed signals; volume is decreasing. Primary and daily trends are up; nevertheless, not much else can be said about current situation.
We have to simply wait for breaking the level of ca.39300 before next buy confirmation.

Oil is rallying this week (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-tap-fresh-one-year-high-atop-78-2009-10-16]

20091015

The WIG Index lost -0.89%:



The open was quite high, however the session finished with a loss. Thus, we should wait for confirmed breakout of 39300, before we signal buy.
Oscillators' trends are quite confusing now.

Interesting article on hedge fund positions with embedded Bank of America Merrill Lynch's report (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/166251-what-hedge-funds-are-buying-and-selling-now]

20091014

Unfortunately, I was not able to publish today's chart.

Session was quite volatile and market gained +2.46%. Let's see if market generates buy signal tomorrow.

20091013

The WIG Index fell -0.58%:



General situation is unclear and not much can be said right now.
As per uptrend we should have long positions now.

20091012

The WIG Index gain +0.64%:



The daily and weekly uptrend is still intact; however, situation is quite unclear. Oscillators are quite neutral and seem to confirm current stagnation.
The double bottom formation (this post) has not been negated; however, I don't think we shall consider it further.
As per uptrend we should be in long positions now, also S&P500 seem to prefer the North direction and holds above 1000 points for a while. Nevertheless, always remember about money management and proper position sizing.

Central banks are moving out from USD (here).

Gold has reached record-high (here):



President Barack Obama has been awarded Nobel Peace Prize (here). Media comments this decision as quite controversal (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/speculation-in-gold-futures-hits-record-high-2009-10-12]
[http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/press.html]
[http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,564303,00.html]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574469203986653982.html]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4x9dIJsPn4U]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers]

20091010 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The previous weeks were quite interesting. Both currencies have generated daily buy signal.

The EURPLN has broken outside area 4.00-4.20:



The CHFPLN is near the important level of 2.80:



Obviously, we cannot say the primary downtrend has been broken. Nevertheless, there is place for quite strong swing; we might want to note the Fibonacci levels, but it's only guessing game.

Note:
Charts are from Monday, 12th October, due to timing issues.