20090730

The WIG Index rallied for +4%:



The weekly buy signal has been generated. The size of this swing is quite large, but we shall not think of it - market makes higher high and that is a reason to buy.

All orders are to be cancelled on July's last session in this week (here). Thus, all orders will have to be entered again the following Monday (or scheduled during the weekend).

I am going for a short trip, thus there won't be any updates for the next few days.

(picture shamelessly stolen from here)

Sources:
[http://www.gpw.pl/zrodla/ogieldzie/regulacje/uch_zarz/09/310_2009.doc (via Google Language Tools)]

20090729

The WIG Index gained +0.56%:



The market is in correction. As per daily and weekly trend we shall treat this as a opportunity to enter positions  (but always place proper defence order).

Google will have real competitor as Microsoft and Yahoo are about to sign a partnership deal (here).

US housing is looking better (here).

Housing bubble in China (here).

Very valuable and interesting paper on trend following strategies (here). Must-a-read.

Sources:
[http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Does_trendfollowing_work_on_stocks.pdf]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152103-who-will-pay-for-china-s-housing-bubble]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152000-microsoft-yahoo-deal-struck-will-be-announced-soon]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152107-u-s-housing-are-better-days-ahead]

20090728

The WIG Index lost -1.24%:



Nothing new an be said - we are still in strong weekly and daily uptrends. We should be playing long now, but mind money management (as always).

Some analysis of US markets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/151713-tuesday-outlook-bulls-remain-in-control]

20090727

The WIG Index finished quite neutrally +0.16%:



We have made new high and therefore new buy signal has been generated.
Nothing new can be said - we shall simply use our strategies to enter trades.

As per currencies - I think we can say the CHFPLN has generated sell signal today and we are waiting for confirmation from EURPLN.

Some thoughts about high-frequency trading (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/151430-high-frequency-trading-we-fear-what-we-do-not-understand]

20090725 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is the lowest since roughly half a year:



The CHFPLN chart is alike:



Both currencies are in interesting setup. I would say the price is still in error margin, but the sell signal is very close (especially on CHFPLN chart).

20090724

The WIG Index gained +1.39%:



The WIG Index is continuing its rally from 13th July, showing exceptional market strength. Both the volume and oscillators seem to confirm the gains. The technical situation is promising at least.

If you were entering near 32000 points (daily buy signal) your positions should be in the money already and it might be a good idea to protect them after so quick gain.

Timothy Geithner urged lawmakers to review the bank regulatory reform program, so this legislation can be approved by year-end (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-congress-must-pass-bank-reform-2009-07-24]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Geithner]

20090723

The WIG registered quite a rally in the last couple of sessions:



The daily buy signal has been generated 15th July, around 30000. This Monday also weekly buy signal has been generated. Thus, we shall consider opening new transactions.
Always use stop-loss orders and proper money management - if we are wrong we shouldn't lose much of our capital.

Quite interesting story about stolen code from Goldman Sachs (here). I raises some concerns among bloggers (here).

Some thoughts about Ben Bernanke's strategy (here).

Additional note:
The EURPLN and CHFPLN currencies are in interesting setup now. We might have strong sell signal quite soon (the price is still in error margin).

Sources:
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrlQSMCx-aE]
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/is-goldman-stealing-100-million-per-trading-day/]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/150440-bernanke-s-conundrum]

20090711 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is close to the important level of 4.30:



The CHFPLN is close to the important level of 2.80:

(charts were generated Friday, thus today's setup might be slightly different)

The currencies are in very interesting situation. After few months of consolidation we have a chance to see important market actions (the possible breakout of mentioned above levels), thus watch them closely.

20090710 - Holidays

The WIG Index lost -1.10%:



The polish market is on edge of generating daily sell signal. I don't think we should be entering any positions now. The daily trend has been broken and both oscillators are confirming that.

Few good videos for weekend (here).

Some guessing game about polish market (here).

Bob Farrell's 10 Rules for Investing (here).

As I’m going for holidays, there probably will be no updates for about two next weeks.

(picture shamelessly stolen from Iho Ohi blog)

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/148031-the-week-s-top-videos-pete-peterson-boone-pickens-jeff-saut-and-more]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4lgRahu0ddY]
[http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/bob-farrells-10.html]

20090709

The WIG Index gained +0.66%:



We had high volume, therefore we have changed the way we draw trendline on volume.

The area of 29600 holds. Nevertheless, it is still not a reason to enter long positions as the daily trend has been broken.

20090708

The WIG Index fell -0.32% today:



The market is close to daily sell signal, but we don't have confirmation yet. The oscillators negative divergences are confirming the downtrend.

It situation like those it is the best to be in the money, but it does not mean we should panic out of our positions. Our defence orders will tell us when to get out.

20090707

The WIG Index finished with 0.01% gain:



The today's volume was quite high (but still in decline), but the finish was quite neutral. We should also note potential head-and-shoulders pattern with target price ca.26000.
Not much else can be said, we have to wait for proper market actions.

Some thoughts about recession in global view (here).

Quite interesting article about current situation (here)

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/147140-this-recession-isn-t-over-now-for-the-hard-part]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/147320-how-to-play-a-market-pullback]

20090706

Quite significant session as we touched the last daily lower low. The entry is delayed; nevertheless, the daily trend is still broken and we should not do anything, but increase our defence orders if necessary.

I'm going for holidays next week, thus there won't be any updates till last week of July.

20090704 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

Both currencies are quite interesting. The EURPLN has fallen quite dynamically:



The CHFPLN chart is alike:



Daily sell signal has been generated. The daily trend has been clearly broken and the weekly downtrend is still intact.
That gives us quite strong bearish setup and we shall expect continuation of fall as per momentum basics.

However, keep in mind the currencies can be very surprising and after last period of stagnation I would personally wait (subjective opinion) for confirmed breakout of last important low (4.20 for EURPLN, 2.78 for CHFPLN) before entering any trades.

20090703

The WIG Index fell -0.49%:



The general situation is not encouraging. Volume is still declining and the oscillators are confirming lower highs.
The market is difficult now and we should not expect average investor to make profits. Thus, we wait.

20090702

It was not possible for me to update this entry. However, not much have changed - the daily trend remains broken, the weekly is still intact.
We should not open any new positions now, therefore the worst could happen is the closure of old positions on defence orders.

20090701

The WIG Index gained +0.89%:



Today's session did not generate any signals. We still have broken daily trend, small volume and negative divergences on both oscillators.
Thus, we only wait and observe.

The EURPLN registered quite significant drop today:



The same on CHFPLN chart:



It might be the rapid continuation of primary downtrend, but we should be careful and wait for market's confirmation.