20090831

The WG Index fell -0.73%:



The market almost generated daily sell signal. Neither oscillators nor volume suggest further fall, but most of European markets finished on red. In my opinion we shall be careful now, but until daily trend is broken we want to enter long positions.

China's Shanghai Composite Index fell -6.74% (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-lower-as-china-sinks-again-2009-08-31-9060]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHCOMP%3AIND]

20090829 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

Both currencies are near their lowest levels from several months.
The EURPLN is still above the psychological support of 4.00:



The CHFPLN chart is alike:



As per downtrend, we shall rather expect breaking those supports and continuation of fall.
However, the Forex market is never straightforward and we should wait for proper market actions.

20090828

The WIG Index gained +1.04%:



Not much can be said.  The uptrend is intact and nothing suggest reversal.

Poland's GDP grew by 1.4% by year-to-year. Nominal GDP amounted to 326.638,6 billion PLN (here).

Sources:
[http://polishmarket.com.pl/document/:20946,Polands+GDP+grew+by+11+in+Q2+2009.html]

20090827

The WIG Index fell -0.99%:



The Monday's gap has been closed, but it didn't change general situation. Last daily low is ca.34800 and the market is still well above that level. The volume has been slightly increased, but oscillators don't suggest any trend reversal as of now.

We have simply to wait and observe the market. As per uptrend we shall be still in long positions (but always with the money management rules in mind).

Interesting daily term from investopedia - (Permanent Portfolio). More information here.

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/permanent-portfolio.asp]
[http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/March/permanent-portfolio-fund.html]

20090826

The WIG Index fell -2.47%:



We are still above the Monday's gap. The general situation looks bullish, both oscillators seem to confirm the north direction and the uptrend is intact.
Nevertheless, be careful when daily trend is broken - catching failing knives can be quite painful.

It seems Ben Bernanke will be re-nominated as FED chairman (here or here).

International Monetary Fund assessed Poland's economy (here).

Sources:
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5imIFLnRV6G6bHHtmLbA8OA4AF03gD9AAEDQO0]
[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/how-to-talk-about-the-ren_b_269881.html]
[http://polishmarket.com.pl/document/:20921,IMF+completes+assessment+of+Polands+situation.html]

20090825

Unfortunately, I did not have any chart tool available today.

The WIG Index has made higher high and new buy signal has been generated. We are above the Monday's gap.
In such setups we should not be guessing when the market will correct itself, but just try to enter long positions.

20090824

The WIG Index gained +2.19%:



Buy signal has been generated as new high has been made. Oscillators seem to confirm new high now, volume is still hard to interpret.
Our positions should be already in money. Make sure you move your defence orders.

The level of 38800 could provide some resistance, but it is just guessing.

Oil is rallying again (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-natural-gas-continue-on-different-paths-2009-08-24]

20090822 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

During this week there were no significant changes in general technical setup of both currencies.
EURPLN is still in the area 4.20-4.00:



The CHFPLN is still in the area 2.65-2.80, chart does not differ too much:



As per downtrend, we should rather expect the support breakouts and fall continuation. Nevertheless, there is no reliable way to forecast currencies and we have to simply wait for market action.

The EURPLN (here) and CHFPLN (here) analyses from ForexPros portal.

Sources:
[http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-pln-technical?period=86400]
[http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/chf-pln-technical?period=86400]

20090821

The WIG Index gained +3.51%:



Today's rally has broken the level of 36700 and generated buy signal, confirming weekly uptrend is intact. Also, the oscillators have reversed theirs downtrend.

Common explanation for today's gain is that JP Morgan advised investors to buy central European equities (here).
Investors, who were not shaken out from positions, made quite a profit.

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0z.p6HSjan0]

20090820

The WIG Index gained +2.89%:



Today was quite volatile session - few days ago the market was at the edge of fall, today we are almost facing new high.

Nevertheless, the general situation still hasn't changed. We are still in the area between 34600 and 36700 - breaking one of those levels would generate signal.

20090819

The WIG Index gained +1.03%:



Not much can be said about current setup. The oscillators are suggesting the fall, the volume is quite hard to interpret.
We are on the edge of daily sell signal, but the support of 34600 still holds.

We should simply ignore our emotions and wait for market decision. Polish market seems to be quite strong in comparison to bigger and more developed markets (i.e.: S&P500, DAX or SHANGHAI).

Interesting analysis of some other assets (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/156950-asset-class-review-crude-gold-and-the-dollar]

20090818

I was unable to post new chart; nevertheless not much has happened, aside for quite small volume.
We still have to wait for proper market action.

20090817

The WIG Index fell -2.42%:



The oscillators are showing negative divergences and also the S&P500 has broken its support (ca.990).
The current setup looks quite bearish, but the price is still above daily support (ca.34600) and we cannot generate daily sell signal.

Nevertheless, we should be careful tomorrow - if we have any long positions make sure the defence orders are in place.  We are not able to say how deep this correction will be, but until our shares are in uptrend we shouldn't drop them.

The China market has fallen quite rapidly lately (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/156308-global-markets-in-review-has-pullback-begun-with-china]

20090815 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

Both currencies are in downtrend, but not much has happened in the currencies since last post.
The EURPLN is still above psychological 4 PLN per 1 EUR:



The CHFPLN chart is alike:



Good news for polish mortgage owners - the prices of properties seem to stabilize (here).

Sources:
[http://dom.money.pl/wiadomosci/poradniki/artykul/ceny;mieszkan;stoja;w;miejscu;wroca;kupujacy,230,0,519398.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20090814

The WIG Index fell -0.52%:



Higher high has been made, thus buy signal has been generated. Nevertheless, I believe we shall be careful and use wide stop losses together with our money management rules. Oscillators and volume are quite confusing.

Also, out target from inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern from May (this post) has been reached (90% of projected swing size).

The bossa.pl portal has published interesting series (part one, part two, part three, part four and part five) on mentioned Blackstar Funds paper (this post).

Some thoughts on US market (here).

Sources:
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1075 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1081 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1084 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1086 (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/?p=1089 (via Google Language Tools)]

20090813

The WIG Index gained +2.20%:



Quite volatile session. Morning power failure resulted in market's open delay (here) and the session opened around noon.
General situation is confusing - volume trend line is hard to draw and oscillators are showing negative divergences. As per uptrend we should be still in long positions, however we should be careful now.

Some thoughts about current market (here).

The Elliot Waves are forecasting correction (here).

Source:
[http://www.wprost.pl/ar/169024/Koniec-awarii-na-warszawskiej-gieldzie/ (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155674-8-thoughts-about-current-markets]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155686-elliot-wave-step-aside-from-long-positions]

20090812

The WIG Index has continued fall from yesterday and lost -0.18% eventually:



The WIG Index is on the edge of generating the daily sell signal, however the level of 34500 has not been broken yet. The volume and oscillators are quite confusing.

Not much can be said right now - we have to wait for market actions.

The Wall Street Journal's survey of economists' expectations, showed the recession is over (here).

US Treasury Notes' yields are rising (here).

Sources:
[http://biznes.onet.pl/ekonomisci-dlawsj-recesja-zakonczona,18491,3027676,1,news-detal (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/155112-rising-treasury-yields-some-thoughts]

20090811

Unfortunately, I was not able to post new entry.

The WIG Index has made higher high, nevertheless it finished quite low with -1.49% loss.

20090810

The WIG Index gained +1.13%:



There is not much to say - the market seems to be pretty strong, but we shall not expect anything. As per uptrend, we are playing only long positions.

Hedge funds have still not recovered despite quite big swings lately (here).

US traders are betting on increased volatility (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/many-hedge-managers-still-under-water-data-show-2009-08-10]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anWx7LRgrFtc]

20090808 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN has given clear sell signal:



We should also note the next psychological barrier for EURPLN around 4 PLN per EUR.

The CHFPLN chart looks alike:



Therefore, both currencies are technically in downtrend. Target prices are as per Fibo levels, however there is no reliable way to forecast in Forex market.

The polish government announced, that the membership of Poland in the euro zone in 2012 is not possible (here). Next date has not been set yet.

Sources:
[http://www.egospodarka.pl/43348,Tydzien-32-2009-03-09-08-2009,1,24,1.html#Pkom (via Google Language Tools)]

20090807

The WIG Index gained +1.27%:



The gain has been accompanied by quite small volume, nevertheless the uptrend is still strong.
As per technical point of view, it might be a good moment to enter trades.

20090806

The WIG Index gained +0.87%:



The market fell few percent over last few session, but the uptrend is still strong.
We are never able to say where market is going next; therefore we should not think too much, but try to enter the market.

20090805

The WIG Index fell -1.94% today:



Monday's higher high generated buy signal. Current situation is promising; the volume generally is increasing with gains and the oscillators are confirming the higher highs.
Not much else can be told - use your own strategies to gain some exposure to the stock market.

Some thoughts about current global setup (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/152874-is-this-a-secondary-or-primary-bull-market]