20100331

The WIG Index fell -0.33%:

The market hovers near the highest high. For several session market is quite boring, nevertheless general situation is looks good and nobody said investing is exiting.
We are in daily- and primary- uptrend and our positions should be in money already.

20100330

The WIG Index gain +0.57%:

There is not much to say; rally continues and we have made new high. We should be already in long positions, thus the only thing left is updating stop-loss orders.

The one thing worth mentioning - we are getting closer to 50% Fibonacci level (ca.44000) of the bear market:

We might expect this level would provide some degree of resistance.

20100329

The WIG Index fell -0.12%

The market continued its rally and another highest high has been made. As per technical approach, we should have long positions only now.

Seeking Alpha portal has published quite interesting article about chineese consumers (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/195871-5-myths-about-the-chinese-consumer]

20100327 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN chart does look quite bearish:

The CHFPLN seems to be regaining some points:

We should note the difference in strength between charts above. The EURPLN seems to be weaker than CHFPLN; unfortunately, it means there are bad news for polish immigrants and there are not good news for polish mortgage owners.

One reason of EURPLN weakness could be the Eurozone's rescue package for Greece (here, here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/giving-greece-8364250m-sends-a-message-to-market-cowen-2114076.html]
[http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0327/1224267175344.html]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aK5Nfj0s1W2k]

20100326

The WIG Index fell -0.08%:

There is nothing new to say - we are in primary uptrend and oscillators and volume seem to confirm this rally.
Anything else is just pure guess-game.

20100325

The WIG Index gain +1.53%:

He have made new high, which proves the market is continuing the rally. The volume moving average is increasing and oscillators are looking bullish.

20100324

The WIG Index fell -0.22%

The market rebounced from highest high and fell little below yesterday's close. We won't be guessing where market goes next, nevertheless current setup is quite bullish.

20100323

The WIG Index gain +0.78%:

Thegeneral technical view hasn't changed. We are still in daily- and primary- uptrend; we shall be using our long strategies now.

20100322

The WIG Index fell -0.13%:

The market fell few points. We have experienced quite aggressive rally in the last couple of sessions, thus correction is quite natural.
Not much can be said - we are in primary uptrend and we should have only long positions.

20100320 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

Not much happened since last EURPLN chart:

We are hovering around ca.3.87 (the low from January 2010) and the odds are we break it.
One might expect, we rally to psychological level of 4.00 and bounce from it, before continuing the fall; nevertheless, it's pure guess.

The CHFPLN still does not show weakness:

We have broken the level of 2.65, but we are still in error margin. Therefore, I don't think we can generate sell signal as of now.

20100319

The WIG Index fell -0.31%:

Today's session was quite volatile. The WIG Index rallied during the session, but lost most of its gain on close.
Nevertheless, general technical situation looks good. Both, the oscillators and volume suggest continuation of uptrend.

Quite interesting paper on US housing (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/194570-is-real-estate-rolling-over]

20100318

The WIG Index fell -0.52%:

We have reached new highest high and the technical situation looks very bullish. As the primary buy signal is pretty important, I will wait for few sessions to see if we fell below this level.

20100317

Unfortunately, I was not able to publish new chart today.

Humorous idiom for St. Patrick's Day.- Leprechaun Leader.

Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leprechaunleader.asp]

20100317

The WIG Index gain +1.64%:

The market is very close to the highest high (ca.41700) and general situation looks quite bullish.
In my opinion we won't be able to break the highest high without pullback, but this is my subjective thought only.

There is interesting science paper about demography in Poland (here). It shows us some predictions about polish population and age dependency ratio.
Unfortunately, the poor future age dependency ratio suggest we should take care of our own pensions and don't look at government schemas. To get better picture, you might also want to read the note from Polish Financial Supervision Commission (this post).

Sources:
[http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-026.pdf]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependency_ratio]

20100315

The WIG Index lost -0.67%:

There is not much new to say - we are advancing and our long positions should be in cash now.
We are close to the highest high (ca.41700); confirmed break it will generate primary buy signal.

20100313 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN chart:

The EURPLN has fallen further and that is not a good sign for polish immigrants.
We are in primary downtrend and we have broken psychological level of 4.00, thus the odds are the fall will continue.

The CHFPLN chart:

The CHFPLN shows some weakness; nevertheless, in my (subjective) opinion we should not generate primary sell yet.

The bailout package for Greece is being prepared (here or here).

There is very interesting paper about selected governments' debts and their responses (here).

Sources:
[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7060757.ece]
[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8565623.stm]
[http://biznes.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/405646,bankructwa_panstwa_wola_bunt_obywateli_od_wojny_z_wierzycielami.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20100312

The WIG Index gain +0.61%:

We had another volume hike today and market gained some points. The oscillators seem to confirm the rally.
The market has been advancing quite fast for while, thus we might expect correction; nevertheless it pure guessing game and we shall be interested in trends only.

20100311

The WIG Index gain +0.03%:

There is nothing new to say. The market is continuing rally and we are quite close to the highest high.

China quite interesting reports: inflation and house prices (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/193168-inflation-house-prices-rise-in-china]

20100310

The WIG Index gain +1.00%:

We have experienced another rally today and quite big volume. The general view is good and the odds are we will break the highest high (ca.41700).

The Polish Financial Supervision Commission has published quite depressing note about the future of obligatory polish pension schemas (here, polish). The APP Funds blog published interesting comments (here).

Sources:
[http://www.knf.gov.pl/Images/KNF_IKE_9_03_10_tcm75-22437.pdf]
[http://appfunds.blogspot.com/2010/03/zbieraj-sam-na-emeryture.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20100309

The WIG Index fell -0.07%:

The WIG Index closed quite neutrally. The general situation look good: both oscillators have reached higher high; and we should note steadily rising volume average.

China might decouple Yuan from USD (here).

Sources:
[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7400482/China-could-ease-dollar-currency-peg-says-Dr-Doom.html]

20100308

The WIG Index gain +0.65%:

The market is advancing quite aggressively. I have to say, that I am still surprised and quite sceptical, but our emotions does not pay - price does.
The primary uptrend has never been broken and we can as well join this rally.

Some of the Warren Buffett's thoughts (here).

For all women today:

(image shamefully stolen from here)

Sources:
[http://www.bestinspirationalquotes4u.com/blog/83/lessons-from-warren-buffet]
[http://www.internationalwomensday.com]

20100306 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN chart is very interesting now:

We have already fallen well below psychological 4.00, thus the primary sell signal has been generated.
Right now we are on the edge of another important price action level (ca.3.87), which might provide some support.

The CHFPLN is lowest since last twelve months:

In my (subjective) opinion, the CHFPLN is still in error level, thus we cannot generate primary sell signal yet.
Analogically to the EURPLN chart, we have important price action level (ca.2.57) below.

Generally speaking, both currencies look quite bearish. The sell signal for EURPLN has been generated and probably CHFPLN will generate sell signal as well.
However, we are in primary downtrend since last year and those signals are/will be only confirmations. As per technical approach we should use any rallies only to liquidate our positions (it is quite speculative maneuver).

20100305

The WIG Index gain +1.18%:

The market rallied again and another daily buy signal has been generated.
We still did not take the highest high (ca.41700), but the odds are suggesting so; however, always protect your positions with stop-loss orders.

20100304

The WIG Index gain +0.22%:

The technical situation still looks good. The oscillators are confirming the higher high and we can also note the volume hike, which is positive sign.

US market also seems to recover (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-higher-2010-03-04]

20100303

The WIG Index gain +0.41%:

I am still quite bearish (maybe due to my zero exposure to the market); however, like mentioned in last post, the general technical setup looks good again.

There is quite interesting paper about Warren Buffett investing style (here). It's quite extreme, however it is worth reading.

Sources:
[http://pragcap.com/the-many-myths-of-warren-buffett]

20100302

The WIG Index gain +1.67%:

The daily buy signal has been generated and technically speaking the odds are we will continue the rally. Both oscillators and volume hike seem to confirm that.
I am still quite bearish, but it does not pay in this business to be stubborn. The market is always right and we should only listen.
Nevertheless, you might want to wait for a few session to see if index keeps above the 39000 area, before you enter long position again. As for me - as I mentioned earlier, I have put my capital elsewhere.

The EURPLN made lower low:

We are still in primary downtrend, but I think we shall wait until we break the ca.3.87 level (low from January 2009) before we can generate primary sell signal (confirming role only).

20100301

The WIG Index gain +0.72%:

The market is just below ca.39000, breaking this level will generate daily buy signal (CCI seems to confirm that).
In my opinion the market is weak and quite bearish, but we should follow the technical signals, not our thoughts.
I am still out of market I probably I won't be returning anytime soon, thus I am not tracking separate companies.