20100531

The WIG Index gain +0.29%:

The market gained some points today and covered gaps from first half of May. We can also notice positive divergence on both oscillators.
We are currently in daily downtrend, but uptrend has not been broken yet. Thus, the buy signal is still valid.

The investigation report from dramatic 6th of May session (this post) has been published (here). It seems there was rather system design error than human one.

Sources:
[http://sec.gov/news/testimony/2010/ts051110mls.htm]

20100529 - 500th entry

Welcome to 500th post!

Since I started this blog in July, 2008 (with different provider), when economic situation looked disastrous.
Next, we have fallen almost to 20000 and rebounced from there. The WIG Index was then at more or less same level as today (ca.40000).

What helped us to dig out from this recession was gigantic stimulus packages from governments worldwide.
The money injected into financial sector caused much controversy.
The governments went into heavy debts and those money will have to be, at least partially, paid from taxes (there is also inflationary scenario).
It is safe to assume, the net amounts we take from our work will be taxed more and social spending will be generally lowered (that also includes our future pension). Therefore, I would rather advise to plan our financial future on our own and don't count on national pension at all. The demography and Poland's external debt is not helping (i.e.: this post).
In summary, the crisis might be over, but the bill still has to be paid.

When I started this blog, I was under impression, that financial markets are for everyone. It is not true; successful investing requires discipline, knowledge, time and capital.I was lucky enough to enter market just in the right moment (this post, March, 2009), but I didn't use the bull market to its full potential.
Unfortunately, there is no other way to learn than experience. Some of my strategies were clear failure; however, I found few, that are very useful and work for me (IMHO, trading methodology is very individual).

This is one of my firsts published charts:

For example, the oscillators' signals are not working for me, but divergences are useful.
I still don't know how to read volume patterns.
Also, I don't use patterns so much any more (only few of them: double top/bottom and head-and-shoulders) - they are too subjective. The same goes for trendlines (especially in Forex market):

I have learned many other things about finance world and economy in general; some of them are useful for life (financial planning, keeping income/outcome books); some of them are for very specific domains only (price action for currencies).

What are plans for the blog's future? No much of a change really.
Right now I am focused on my second project and I have moved almost all my capital there. However, I will be back to market eventually, as soon as I have finished with that investment (and assuming the bull market will continue).

At the end of this entry, I would like to wish you all good trades: huge gains and small losses (which are inevitable unfortunately). Always remember to use stop-loss orders and sound money management system.
However, never forget - money are just a tool - not a target! Your life (and yours family) always comes first.

20100529 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is hovering above psychological level of 4.00:

The CHFPLN chart is looking quite bullish, but still below important level of 3.00:

After dramatic rally, both currencies are hovering near important supports (4.00 for EURPLN, 2.85 for CHFPLN).
It is almost impossible to forecast Forex right, thus we focus only on reacting to market prices.

20100528

The WIG Index gain +1.11%:

The market has recovered some points and it advancing further. We are still in daily downtrend and primary uptrend; nothing else can be said at the moment.

20100527

Then WIG Index gain +1.00%:

The market continues retracement; nevertheless, the general overview has not been changed.
Primary uptrend is intact and our positions should be long only.

20100526

The WIG Index gain +3.68%:

Today's rally was quite amazing, however it does not change the general setup.

The Warsaw Stock Exchange is generally quite strong in comparison to US market:

20100525

The WIG Index fell -2.03%:

Not much new can be said - the market is still in daily uptrend, but the primary uptrend is intact.
Depending on you strategy, you might want to open new long positions or wait for further market actions; however, we should not enter short positions now (as per primary uptrend).

20100524

The WIG Index gain +0.86%:

The market regained some points, but general situation has not been changed. We are still in daily downtrend, but primary uptrend has not been broken.
We should not try to guess the market; however, the odds are we will continue primary rally (unless we break the level of ca.37000) and our positions should be still long only.

20100522 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is still above 4.00:

The CHFPLN is near 2.86 now:

Both currencies are still railing, however they did not cross their highest high as for now.
Therefore, the best approach is to observe only. Nevertheless, we should consider the possibility of primary trend reversal.

The US Senate has blocked the use of taxpayers’ money for International Monetary Fund's bailouts for Greece (here).

Sources:
[http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100005734/congress-blocks-indiscriminate-imf-aid-for-europe]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund]

20100521

The WIG Index gain +0.71%:

The market has made daily lower low, thus daily sell signal has been generated.
Nevertheless, we have to remember we are still in primary uptrend and our positions should be still long only.

20100520

The WIG Index fell -2.82%:

The market fell further, generating another daily sell signal.
Depending on your strategies you might want to hold with new positions or enter near support levels (but only with stop-loss orders).
The primary uptrend sell signal would be generated if we break (and confirm) through the level of 37000.

20100519

Unfortunately, I was not able to post new charts for a while due to work related to my secondary project.

The WIG Index fell -2.70%:

The general situation has not changed too much. The market is still in daily downtrend, but primary uptrend has not been reversed yet. The oscillators seems to confirm the fall.
Quite frequent gaps can be interpreted as lack of strong trend in the market now.
However, we are still in primary uptrend, thus our positions should only long. We might also want to enter new transactions (but remember about stop-loss orders).

The IMF-European Union financial aid package for Greece reached about 110 billion EUR total (here).
The Irish Independent summarized the cost of bailout for taxpayers (here).

Sources:
[http://www.independent.ie/national-news/taxpayers-face-secondhighest-bill-in-eurozone-to-save-greece-2186623.html]
[http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/greek-bailout-must-be-fully-implemented-to-work_458815.html]

20100515 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN went back near the level of 4.00:

The CHFPLN is around 2.86 now:

Both currencies have lost points quite dramatically. The EURPLN is still in clear primary downtrend; the CHFPLN is more tricky and is hard to say anything definitely right now.
The best is to hold any judgement and observe the market carefully.

20100514

The WIG Index fell -2.00%:

The Index lost a number of points today.
The market is clearly in daily downtrend, however general situation still looks quite bullish:

Thus we should be still using only our long strategies.

The Greece's crisis has potential to impact EU economy recovery rates (here)

Sources:
[http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=361491&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28]

20100513

The WIG Index gain +0.04%:

The market closed quite naturally, just near the January's high (horizontal blue line on chart). It is hard to say anything about current situation, thus we wait for market actions.

20100512

The WIG Index gain +1.07%:

The market is regaining some points, nevertheless we are still well below highest high and in daily downtrend.

The PZU's IPO was quite a success:


There is nice interactive map for EU countries economic forecast. Poland has more detailed paper (here).


Sources:
[http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_spring_forecast_en.htm]
[http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_spring/pl_en.pdf]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PZU]
[http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ipo.asp]

20100511

The WIG Index fell -0.82%:

Today's market has not repeated yesterday's rally and we have lost some points. General situation has not changed and we are still well below the highest high.
Nevertheless, we are still in primary uptrend and our positions should be long only. Depending on your strategy you might want also open new positions, but we need to remember we are in daily downtrend now.

20100510

Unfortunately, due to personal reasons, I was not able to post a new chart today.

The WIG Index has gained +4.69%, which is the best one-day gain in this bull market. Also, the Monday's gap has been covered with volume hike.
However, today's session is of low value in terms of technical situation. The general has not been changed and we are still in primary uptrend and daily downtrend.

20100508 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The currencies setup has changed quite dramatically.
The EURPLN chart:

The volatility is quite amazing; however, the EURPLN hasn't broken the primary downtrend yet.
Nevertheless, the psychological level of 4.00 has been broken and that is important signal.

The CHFPLN chart looks event more confusing:

The exchange rate bounced from psychological level of 3.00, breaking the important high of 2.86.
That is a primary buy signal; however, I am not sure now how we should interpret the high of 2.86 as it has not been confirmed by lower low (the 2.62 low is still in error margin); therefore I would wait with transactions until significant (and confirmed) breakthrough of 3.00.

Generally speaking, it is not the time to press panic button yet. The EURPLN's exchange rate is sill in primary downtrend and the CHFPLN is under psychological level of 3.00.
However, those swings can be prologue to move significant moves, therefore we should watch them closely now.

The Germany's government accepted the bailout plan for Greece (here).

Sources:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/07/debt-crisis-greece-germany

20100507

TheWIG Index fell -2.55%:

The index has dived significantly; current fall is confirmed with volume hike and downtrend in oscillators.
The current market sentiment is obviously quite bearish; however, we need to remember we are still in primary uptrend and now it might be the best time to buy. Of course, we should consider opening positions only with proper stop-loss orders and under money management rules.
We are not able to forecast the market, however we can limit our loses.

The Thursday's session in US markets commentary (here). IMHO, we can't explain yesterday's market in reasonable way as of today.

Sources:
http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/5/2010/6/

20100506

The WIG Index fell -0.77%:

The market as fallen further; we are now close to 50% Fibonacci level.
It's possible some of reader's stop-loss orders were triggered. Depending on our strategy we might want to place buy orders near supports' levels for individual shares.

The truly amazing session happened in US markets (here):

S&P500 went as low as -8.7% during the day.
There is a rumor, that today's crash might be a result of human error (here or here).

The Polish Zloty was further weaken.
The EURPLN chart:

The EURPLN is still in technical primary downtrend; however we need to consider trend reversal.
The CHFPLN chart:

The CHFPLN has risen surprising ca.+9% in the last two days.
I cannot find reasonable explanation to such rally, however market does not care what we fell.
Technically speaking, after nine months of consolidation, the last lower high (2.86) has been broken and buy signal has been generated.
Unfortunately, those are not good news for polish mortgage owners.

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704370704575227754131412596.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopStories]
[http://wallstreetpit.com/26427-rumor-major-trading-firm-caused-the-crash]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3tiFiVZLZwg&pos=1]

20100505

The WIG Index fell -1.74%:

The market has generated daily sell signal. We cannot say what is the range of correction, however we need to note we are still in primary uptrend.
Therefore, short positions are against the trend.

The EURPLN and CHFPLN have retraced greatly today:

Nevertheless, the primary downtrend has not been broken yet.
Any short-term forecasting in Forex is pure guessing. Also, reasoning it after makes no sense in most of the cases.
However, we might want to read few opinions (here, here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Sroda-kolejny-dzien-spadku-wartosci-zlotego-2136450.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.xtb.pl/strona.php?komentarz=14372 (Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.tms.pl/z-rynku/komentarze-rynkowe/357-kolejna-sesja-dynamicznego-oslabienia-zlotego.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20100501 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN chart shows us correction:

The EURPLN has regained some points and is in intraday rally.
Nevertheless, it does not change the primary downtrend. The next psychological level is 4.00, which could act as a strong resistance.

The CHFPLN has also retraced some points:

However, the CHFPLN is still in flat consolidation between ca.2.60-2.90.