20100731 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is still hovering in 4.00-4.20 area:

The CHFPLN has broken the psychological barrier of 3.00:

The important support has been broken and that are good news for polish mortgage owners.
However, the CHFPLN still remains in primary uptrend unless 2.60 is taken.

20100730

The WIG Index fell -0.36%:

The last week Thursday's buy signal is still valid. Our positions should be only long as per daily- and primary- uptrend.

20100729

The WIG Index gain +0.47%:

There is nothing new to say. For few last session we are hovering near 43000.
The odds are we will continue the rally.

20100728

The WIG Index fell -0.46%:

As can be seen in chart the market bounced form Fibo level of 161.8%.
Nevertheless, it does not change long term view - we are still in daily- and primary- uptrend.

20100727

Unfortunately, I was not able to post a new char due to work related to my secondary project.

Not much changed today, the market is still in daily- and primary- uptrend.

20100726

The WIG Index gain +1.00%:

The market continues rally and we actually could have made some profit after Thursday buy signal (this post).
Depending on your time-frame, you might want to secure your position with trailing stop-loss order.

20100724 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN does not show much of a change as we are still in 4.00-4.20 area:

The CHFPLN is still hovering near 3.00:

There is not much to say as the rates are hovering near their psychological levels.
Nevertheless, we shall observe markets closely now.

Only 7 of 91 tested banks in EU failed recent stress tests (here or here). Five of those were Spanish banks.

Sources:
[http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100723/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_stress_tests]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/seven-of-91-eu-banks-fail-stress-test-face-4-5-billion-capital-shortfall.html]

20100723

Note: I have switched to Ubuntu, thus I have to yet learn the available charting tools under Linux. Today's chart has been produced by Qtstalker.

The WIG Index gain +0.32%:

We can see the WIG Index generated buy signal yesterday and confirmed it on today's session. That gives us hope for rally as the primary uptrend has not been broken. Both oscillators (RSI, CCI) seem to confirm the gains.
The swing target level - Fibo 168% has been marked on chart.

20100722

I've gone through main system reinstallation and I am currently looking for a good charting program for Ubuntu (any suggestions?).
Thus, next few charts will be quite simplistic.

The WIG Index gain +1.43%:

The daily buy signal has been generated. Therefore, technical analysis is telling us to enter the polish market.
However, for other markets, the PA are not looking good (here).

Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/broken-uptrends/]

20100721

The WIG Index gain +1.93%:

The WIG Index has gained some points today, however it was not enough to generate daily buy signal.

20100720

The WIG Index fell -0.70%:

The technical situation still looks very static.
Quick summarization:

• we are still in primary uptrend and daily downtrend;
• RSI and CCI oscillators are showing positive divergences;
• volume is decreasing;
• S&P500 is above 1000 and there was no sell signal generated.

The EU banks stress tests results will be released this Friday (here).

Note: I am entering important phase of my secondary project. Therefore, there might be breaks in daily posts.

Sources:
[http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE66J21U20100720]

20100719

Unfortunately, due to work related to my secondary project, I was not able to post a new chart.

20100717 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is still floating between 4.00 - 4.20:

The CHFPLN is near technical (and psychological) level of 3.00:

The odds are CHFPLN will bounce from this level and continue upward. However, we shall also remember that CHFPLN never stayed above 3.00 for long (this post).
The currency market is never simple as it seems to be. In my (subjective) opinion Forex market should be used only for hedging our positions.

20100716

The WIG Index fell -0.58%:

Again, there is not much we can say before index breaks (and confirms) last high (ca.41400) or last low (ca. 38900). However, we shall note the positive divergences on both oscillators.

20100715

The WIG Index gain +0.16%:

The index is still below last daily high (ca.41400), thus we still have to wait.

20100714

The WIG Index gain +0.48%:

The market in on the edge of generating daily buy signal.

Technically speaking we should consider opening long positions as primary uptrend has not been broken.
There is lot of fear now in the market; however the technical approach allows us remove personal feelings from trading. We don't know where market decides to go, however if we play with proper money management, the odds of profiting will be on our side.

There is an interesting paper about market momentum (here).

Sources:
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/2010/07/13/impet-jednej-sesji/ (via Google Language Tools)]

20100713

The WIG Index gain +0.69%:

The market is still in consolidation and there is not much to say.
We shall note the positive divergences on both oscillators.

20100712

The WIG Index gain +0.90%:

Nothing new can be said about current setup. Technically we are still in primary uptrend, however the daily trend remains broken.
We might note the positive divergences on both oscillators, but we shall look mainly at price actions.

20100710 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is still moving between 4.00 - 4.20:

The CHFPLN is touching the psychological level of 3.00:

Technically speaking, the odds are the CHFPLN will rebounce from this level.
However, I would advise to take a look at long term chart (this post) as technical situation is not as clear as it seems to be.

20100709

Unfortunately, I was not able to post new chart today.
However, no new signals were generated and we are still hovering just above 40000.

20100708

The WIG Index gain +0.25%:

The WIG Index is still hovering near psychological level of 40000. Not much else can be said, before we see more decided market actions.

20100707

The WIG Index fell -0.09%:

Technical situation is static. We are still in primary uptrend, but daily trend is still broken.
The oscillators are sill showing negative divergences and volume is failing.
Not much can be said at the moment.

We should watch US markets, however the analysis are quite negative at the moment (here or here).

Sources:
[http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/7/2010/6/]
[http://www.alphatrends.net/2010/07/06/sp-500-levels-analysis-for-7710/]

20100706

The WIG Index gain +1.57%:

The market is again above 40000, however that does not change current technical situation.

20100705

The WIG Index fell -0.30%:

Not much new can be said about the market now. There were no session in US markets, thus we have to observe it tomorrow.

Bronisław Komorowski has won second turn of presidential election and he will become next president of Poland (here).

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronisław_Komorowski]
[http://wybory.onet.pl/prezydenckie-2010/aktualnosci/,1,3317451,aktualnosc.html (via Google Language Tools)]

20100703 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN still moves between 4.00 - 4.20:

The CHFPLN has generated strong buy signal, when level of 3.00 has been broken:

That's a definitely buy signal and those are not good news for polish mortgage owners.
However, let's take look at long-term chart:

What is worth mentioning is this psychological level of 3.00 has been broken four times in last 15 years. Last time exchange rates went as far as ca.3.35.
Over few years I have learnt, that forecasting Forex market is next to impossible; nevertheless, in my (very subjective) opinion, that is the level we should be watching now.

For polish mortgage owners - your mortgages are most probably to be paid in 20-25 years. That is a very long time, there will be few crises during that time and anything can happen. Therefore, do not panic - I believe the rates are still smaller than mortgages in PLN.

20100702

The WIG Index gain +1.11%:

The Warsaw Stock Exchange is quite strong in comparison to US market. We are still above February's low and primary uptrend has not been broken yet.

The S&P500 is still above psychological level of 1000, but US market does not looks good technically and fundamentally (here).

Sources:
[http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/7/2010/2/]

20100701

The WIG Index fell -0.07%:

The market has fallen to important level of 38900. Breaking this level will generate strong sell signal.
However, we need to remember, that we are still in primary uptrend.

The S&P500 has touched the psychological level of 1000:

The US markets are important indicator, thus we shall observe them closely.