20100227 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN has made another lowest low:

The price is still in tolerable range below psychological 4.00 - that prevents us from generation primary sell signal. However, we need to remember, the EURPLN is in primary downtrend and any rally should be used to reduce our exposure only.

The CHFPLN is in consolidation:

Unfortunately for polish mortgage owners, the CHFPLN chart does not show any sign of weakness.

The Greece's financial deficit is causing further EURUSD slide (here). Nevertheless, we need to note, the weaker the EURO, the more competitive Euro-Zone's economy is.
Switzerland has quite interesting situation, as Swiss banks have quite big exposure (relatively to total amount) to Greece (here or here).

Sources:
[http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2010/02/13/europes-exposure-to-pigs-problem/]
[http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/world-mainmenu-26/europe-mainmenu-35/3034-greece-euro-and-even-the-eu-on-the-ropes]
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/11/greece-debt-france-switzerland]

20100226

The WIG Index gain +2.00%:

Today's rally was impressive in numbers (+2.00%), but it did not went far above yesterday's high. Regardless of primary uptrend, I am still sceptical about current rally.
Currently, I have no exposure to stock market (however, this is due to other reasons).

20100225

The WIG Index fell -1.29%:

Again, not much can be said about current situation.
The primary uptrend is still intact and we can note the positive divergence on CCI oscillator (RSI is quite neutral); those might be good signals.
Nevertheless, in my (subjective) opinion it is too risky to enter the long or short positions now.

20100224

The WIG Index fell -0.23%:

The general situation did not change. The market rebounced from ca.39000 and we still have to wait for clarification.

The Greece's credit ranking has not been downgraded (here), but its financial situation is still causing issues in Euro-Zone (here).

Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abuLTVWwK_YA]
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704240004575085822250274324.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines]

20100223

The WIG Index fell -0.85%:

The market still hovers just below 39000 and there is not much new to say. The CCI oscillator looks more positive, however it's not yet confirmed by RSI.
Of course, we cannot forecast further direction of any market (and we won't even try), but being at least cautions is advised now.

The S&P500 Index has experienced quite sharp fall (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-grasp-for-gains-with-earnings-in-focus-2010-02-23]

20100222

The WIG Index gain +0.55%:

(my usual data provider has technical difficulties, thus the chart might be not accurate)

The market fell from the current resistance area (ca.39000) as for today.
Regardless of primary uptrend, I'm still quite bearish; however, breaking this level (and staying above for at least few sessions) might be positive sign. Aside from that not much can be said.

The US economy is sending mixed signals (here). The market showed no reaction after discount rate increase (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/manufacturing-strong-but-consumers-cagey-2010-02-21]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/189741-inflation-why-markets-ignored-the-fed-rate-hike]

20100220 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN is at psychological level of 4.00:

Current situation is quite interesting and the odds are the fall will continue. However, we should not prejudge anything and we have to wait for further market actions.

The CHFPLN chart still shows consolidation:

Unfortunately, for polish mortgage owners, the CHFPLN does not show any sign of weakness.

20100219

The WIG Index gain +0.16%:

Current setup does not look so bullish. After significant drop (ca.10%), we have rebounced only to Fibo 38.2% level as for now.
We are still in primary uptrend, however the market looks weak (it's my subjective opinion) and entering long positions is too risky.

The American software engineer crashed his jet into Texas Internal Revenue office. Regardless his motivations, his manifest is discussing an crisis' long-term economic impact on individuals (here).

Sources:
[http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/austin-plane-crash-pilot-joseph-stacks-suicide-note-in-full-14689927.html]

20100218

The WIG Index fell -0.78%:

The index is near natural resistance (ca.39100). This area has been tested several times before (i.a.: 20th Nov and 10th Dec, 2009) and might be hard to pass.
Nevertheless, such forecasting has no value; we should remember we are still in primary uptrend, regardless of our emotions about current situation.

As for my setup, I have exited (or rather was shaken out) from most of my positions. I don't plan to enter the market anytime soon; however, it's unrelated to current technical setup.

20100217

The WIG Index gain +1.38%:

We are observing recovery; nevertheless, the market has fallen quite fast before and such retracement is quite common.
We also have to remember, regardless of our feelings the primary sell signal was not generated and technically we are still in primary uptrend.

20100216

The WIG Index fell -0.46%:

The last week's gap has been almost completely covered. The gap's upper level acted as intraday resistance and we have seen falling index for rest of the session.

Aside for that, nothing new can be said.
It might be the best time to enter the market, but the technical situation looks quite bearish, regardless of primary uptrend (subjective opinion).
One of the investment rule is to "do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do" (here).

Sources:
[http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2010/02/best-investment-rule.html]

20100215

The WIG Index gain +1.60%:

We have experienced quite a rally today.
We are still in primary uptrend, however the market has been hurt badly and it might be only the correction. Nevertheless, we won't know until market clarifies itself.

As for my strategy - the situation is risky. I also have other financial goals at the moment; therefore, my exposure to stock markets will be greatly reduced in the next few months.

20100213 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The Greece's financial issues had big impact on EURO this week (here, here or here) and the EURPLN is again near the psychological level of 4.00:

The currency is in very interesting point; breaking (and confirming) this level would generate primary sell signal, which would end six months consolidation.
We should have now none or very limited exposure (for example if we receive salary in EUR) to EURPLN.

The CHFPLN's still shows consolidation:

Unfortunately for polish mortgage owners, the CHFPLN's setup does not show any kind of weakness and it does not suggest further fall as of today.

Sources:
[http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100212-711595.html?mod=rss_Currencies]
[http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0213/1224264351829.html]
[http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=118478&sectionid=351020605]

20100212

The WIG Index gain +1.64%:

After quite dramatic drop during previous week, the market did not move either way for the last few sessions. Nevertheless, we are still on edge of breaking the primary trend.
In such setup we should rather stay in cash. We also might have few protected long positions left if we were not shaken completely.

Scientists from Cambridge University have reported serious flaw in credit card's transaction authorisation (here).

Sources:
[http://resources.zdnet.co.uk/articles/0,1000001991,40022669,00.htm]

20100211

The WIG Index fell -1.23%:

The market drop has been confirmed by volume hike; that's negative signal. Also, both oscillators are confirming the fall.
We might want to prepare for entering short positions; however the primary trend has not been broken yet. We need to remember that shorting the market is complex and needs more expertise.

The European Union pledge to support Greece (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tocks-mixed-in-early-trading-2010-02-11]

20100210

The WIG Index gain +0.45%:

The huge gap from last week acted as resistance and the session ended on its open's level.

There is not much else to add say about current setup now; market looks weak and we might recover or not.
In my (subjective) opinion the risk is rather big now.

Quite bearish interpretation of Elliott's waves on S&P500 (here).

Sources:
[http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/02/08/quick-elliott-wave-update-on-the-sp-500]

20100209

The WIG Index gain +0.75%:

The market did provide us some relief today. We still cannot generate sell signal; however, markets look rather weak in longer term (it's subjective opinion).
Not much else can be said now; it's too risky to enter long positions and too early to short the market via contracts or options.

20100208

The WIG Index fell -0.44%:

We are still in error margin, thus the primary sell signal has not been generated yet.
Nevertheless, the market looks very weak and the current technical situation is very serious. Of course, entering long positions is not advisable now.

It might also be a good idea to get ourselves familiar with index futures or other available instruments, which allow us to make money on failing markets. Nevertheless, the sell signal still has not been generated yet and we should remember that.
Unfortunately, I have very limited expertise with this derivatives, thus I am not sure if I should stay in this market if it breaks.

Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)]

20100206 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN rebounced from ca.3.95:

The CHFPLN chart looks similarly:

The rallies are impressive; nevertheless, the general situation has not been changed; we are still in primary downtrend. Technically speaking such corrections should be only used to sell our positions.

We might also theorize if the gains were the result of stock markets drop. An interesting problem is to check correlation between currency exchange rates and stock market itself:

As we can see in the chart above, the correlation (50 last session days) between the WIG Index and EURPLN/CHFPLN periodically varies from almost absolute negative correlation (near minus one) to no dependency at all (correlation near zero).
As per my interpretation the currencies are periodically correlated to stock market, however it is not very reliable forecasting tool.

20100205

The WIG Index fell -3.29%:

We have experienced another significant drop today and we are at the edge of primary sell signal. We should also note the volume's hike.
If we were using stop-loss orders probably at least few of our positions were sold.

One of our advantages over the financial institutions is we don't have to be in the market all the time (here).We have to remember we gave gained over 100% from the bottom without any major correction and the gain/risk ratio is not favorable now.

On another side, the drop was very fast and we might see some retracement in short intervals, however minority of traders can day-trade successfully. 

US market had also tough day (here).

Sources:
[http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2010/02/one-of-biggest-mistakes-most-investors.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-lower-after-payrolls-data-2010-02-05]

20100204

The WIG Index fell -3.34%:

The daily sell signal has been generated, nevertheless the WIG Index is still above its primary low (ca.37400).
Almost all markets experienced a significant drop today: Europe (here), US (here), Asia stock markets were rather neutral (here).

Technically speaking we are still in primary uptrend, however the overall picture is quite negative. It's too early to short positions, but we should not enter new ones either.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-lower-on-jobs-europe-woes-2010-02-04]
[http://www.eitb.com/news/detail/348901/stock-exchange-portugal-spain-and-greece-led-aglobal-retreat/]

20100203

The WIG Index gain +0.54%:

The market regained some points, but the chart still gives impression it would crash in a minute. Nevertheless, we are still in primary uptrend and until it's brken we should hold to our long positions only.

20100202

Unfortunately, I was not able to post a new entry today.

20100201

The WIG Index fell -0.80%:

Today was another losing session. The volume was small, that might give us some hope.

I'm quite bearish, but forecasting the market is only the guesswork now. Technically speaking we are still in primary uptrend and US market has a good day (here).
Therefore, we should not think of shorting the market yet and our positions should be still long (if we were not shaken off during current fall).

The EURPLN looks quite bearish; I think we should watch it continuously now:

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-climb-to-kick-off-february-2010-02-01]