The EURPLN continues rebouncing from 4.00; nothing else can be said until we cross this level or break out from consolidation:
The CHFPLN is still in consolidation:
Posts
20090415
15 years ago
20100130 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
Not much changed since last currency post.
The EURPLN continues rebouncing from 4.00; nothing else can be said until we cross this level or break out from consolidation:
The CHFPLN is still in consolidation:
The EURPLN continues rebouncing from 4.00; nothing else can be said until we cross this level or break out from consolidation:
The CHFPLN is still in consolidation:
20100129
The WIG Index gain +0.35%:
The market regained some points from tomorrow, however we have made lower low.
The level of 40000 has been defended for now and we are still above the important level of 39300.
I am rather overall bearish - markets have rebounced greatly and we are in consolidation now.
Nevertheless, emotions should not be a reason behind our actions, thus we should always wait for market signals and act only then.
The S&P500 Index is still on support (as of now):
Update from 2010/01/30:
It seems that S&P500 has broken the daily support:
This is quite negative signal, but we need to wait for polish market reaction till Monday.
There is nice paper of Poland's economic situation (here). I have to say I don't totally agree with all author's statement, but overall article shows Poland's economic advantages quite well .
I have summarized the period since March and I think my strategy could do better. There were few daily sell/buy signals, where there should be none and such struggling lowered total profit. It simply means I have to rethink few options and come out with better approach.
Trading is never-ending process of self-enhancement and, unfortunately, this kind of knowledge comes only with experience and cannot be taught or found in books.
Sources:
[http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15394158]
The market regained some points from tomorrow, however we have made lower low.
The level of 40000 has been defended for now and we are still above the important level of 39300.
I am rather overall bearish - markets have rebounced greatly and we are in consolidation now.
Nevertheless, emotions should not be a reason behind our actions, thus we should always wait for market signals and act only then.
The S&P500 Index is still on support (as of now):
Update from 2010/01/30:
It seems that S&P500 has broken the daily support:
This is quite negative signal, but we need to wait for polish market reaction till Monday.
There is nice paper of Poland's economic situation (here). I have to say I don't totally agree with all author's statement, but overall article shows Poland's economic advantages quite well .
I have summarized the period since March and I think my strategy could do better. There were few daily sell/buy signals, where there should be none and such struggling lowered total profit. It simply means I have to rethink few options and come out with better approach.
Trading is never-ending process of self-enhancement and, unfortunately, this kind of knowledge comes only with experience and cannot be taught or found in books.
Sources:
[http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15394158]
20100128
The WIG Index fell -0.11%:
We managed to cover the Tuesday's gap; nevertheless, today was the third losing session in a row.
The market has fallen quite a lot already, we might experience some kind of retracement now.
The S&P500 Index is on the edge of support (ca.1080). We shall watch it close as it might show future direction of global markets.
We managed to cover the Tuesday's gap; nevertheless, today was the third losing session in a row.
The market has fallen quite a lot already, we might experience some kind of retracement now.
The S&P500 Index is on the edge of support (ca.1080). We shall watch it close as it might show future direction of global markets.
20100127
The WIG Index fell -0.23%:
The market did not fall further, however it did not show much rebound either. It's quite hard to give any forecast and the fall is quite significant now.
However, we shall not panic as we are still above important supports (i.a.: 39100, 38000 and 37400).
Unfortunately, not much we can do now - the primary trend is still in place and our long positions should be protected by stop-loss orders.
The market did not fall further, however it did not show much rebound either. It's quite hard to give any forecast and the fall is quite significant now.
However, we shall not panic as we are still above important supports (i.a.: 39100, 38000 and 37400).
Unfortunately, not much we can do now - the primary trend is still in place and our long positions should be protected by stop-loss orders.
20100126
The WIG Index fell -1.12%:
The market opened with a gap and crashed again.
We are still in primary uptrend, but catching falling knives is usually not a good idea. Not much else can be said - it can be either good place to enter few long trades or losing point.
Nevertheless, we should always have our stop loss orders in place.
We should also observe US market now. The S&P500 Index is quite close to daily support (ca.1080):
The market opened with a gap and crashed again.
We are still in primary uptrend, but catching falling knives is usually not a good idea. Not much else can be said - it can be either good place to enter few long trades or losing point.
Nevertheless, we should always have our stop loss orders in place.
We should also observe US market now. The S&P500 Index is quite close to daily support (ca.1080):
20100125
The WIG Index gain +0.11%:
Today, market has gained some points; however, the close was quite neutral.
There is not reliable technique to say if market will continue to fall or rally again. We should have our stop-loss orders placed and wait now.
I'm also not sure if there was daily sell signal generated or not (it's quite subjective now). Thus, staying aside might be a good idea now.
As per gmargtrader's request, the monthly and weekly CHFPLN charts are below:
Monthly chart does not tell us much - we have higher high just after lower low. Thus, by definition it is neither uptrend nor downtrend:
Weekly chart shows us primary downtrend:
As per weekly downtrend the odds are we will continue the fall; however, currencies can be very surprising and, thus I am always very cautious with those.
Today, market has gained some points; however, the close was quite neutral.
There is not reliable technique to say if market will continue to fall or rally again. We should have our stop-loss orders placed and wait now.
I'm also not sure if there was daily sell signal generated or not (it's quite subjective now). Thus, staying aside might be a good idea now.
As per gmargtrader's request, the monthly and weekly CHFPLN charts are below:
Monthly chart does not tell us much - we have higher high just after lower low. Thus, by definition it is neither uptrend nor downtrend:
Weekly chart shows us primary downtrend:
As per weekly downtrend the odds are we will continue the fall; however, currencies can be very surprising and, thus I am always very cautious with those.
20100123 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN has rebounced from psychological level of 4.00:
Thia currency pair shows weakness, however we should not generate sell signal before the level of 4.00 is broken (and breakout is confirmed).
However, we should remember we are in primary downtrend and, technically speaking, all rallies should be used to get out the position (if we have any).
Unfortunately for polish mortgage owners, CHFPLN is still in consolidation and does not confirm EURPLN's weakness:
However, since its adoption (on 16th Dec 1995), EUR has never weakened more than ca.1.40 to CHF:
It's more of guessing game, but I think we might expect some EURCHF retracement, which will weaken the CHFPLN as well.
Thia currency pair shows weakness, however we should not generate sell signal before the level of 4.00 is broken (and breakout is confirmed).
However, we should remember we are in primary downtrend and, technically speaking, all rallies should be used to get out the position (if we have any).
Unfortunately for polish mortgage owners, CHFPLN is still in consolidation and does not confirm EURPLN's weakness:
However, since its adoption (on 16th Dec 1995), EUR has never weakened more than ca.1.40 to CHF:
It's more of guessing game, but I think we might expect some EURCHF retracement, which will weaken the CHFPLN as well.
20100122
The WIG Index fell -2.13%:
We have experiences quite dramatic fall today. We should also note the hike in volume, which is negative sign.
I'm not sure if we should interpret the level of 40700 as higher low and, therefore, I'm not sure if we should call the daily sell signal.
As Jack Steiman suggested in his Jack's Wrap (here), we could be just unwinding the oscillators and sentiment. Nevertheless, cautions is required and stop loss orders are a must now.
US market also took a beating today (here).
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-lower-as-tech-earnings-lag-2010-01-22]
[http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/1/2010/21/]
We have experiences quite dramatic fall today. We should also note the hike in volume, which is negative sign.
I'm not sure if we should interpret the level of 40700 as higher low and, therefore, I'm not sure if we should call the daily sell signal.
As Jack Steiman suggested in his Jack's Wrap (here), we could be just unwinding the oscillators and sentiment. Nevertheless, cautions is required and stop loss orders are a must now.
US market also took a beating today (here).
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-lower-as-tech-earnings-lag-2010-01-22]
[http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/1/2010/21/]
20100121
The WIG Index fell -0.65%:
The market did not show much strength today, but the fall was not dramatic either.
As per primary- and daily- uptrend, it might be a good idea to open long positions on retracement.
The market did not show much strength today, but the fall was not dramatic either.
As per primary- and daily- uptrend, it might be a good idea to open long positions on retracement.
20100120
The WIG Index gain +0.17%:
The market has reached another higher high (and the new buy signal has been generated).
General technical setup looks good and thus we shall be using our long strategies now.
It will be quite unusual entry for this blog.
We all know what happened on Haiti (tons of news can be found by Google News engine). About 200000 people are dead (here) and around 1.5 million are homeless.
Many charity organizations are gathering all help they can get for them. If you would like to participate:
Moreover, some companies have offered to match its employee contributions. Therefore, you might want to check that with your employer.
Sources:
[http://www.aib.ie/personal/home/haiti-earthquake-appeal]
[http://www.pck.pl/news,467.html]
[https://www.redcross.org.uk/emergencysite/campaign.aspx?id=88917]
[http://www.nowpublic.com/world/haiti-earthquake-death-statistics-update-eu-says-200-000-dead-2559557.html]
The market has reached another higher high (and the new buy signal has been generated).
General technical setup looks good and thus we shall be using our long strategies now.
It will be quite unusual entry for this blog.
We all know what happened on Haiti (tons of news can be found by Google News engine). About 200000 people are dead (here) and around 1.5 million are homeless.
Many charity organizations are gathering all help they can get for them. If you would like to participate:
- for readers from Poland - Polish Red Cross is organizing help for Haiti (here).
- for readers from United Kingdom - British Red Cross has a similar appeal (here).
- for readers from Ireland - the AIB Bank in Ireland published quite good list of charity accounts (here).
Moreover, some companies have offered to match its employee contributions. Therefore, you might want to check that with your employer.
Sources:
[http://www.aib.ie/personal/home/haiti-earthquake-appeal]
[http://www.pck.pl/news,467.html]
[https://www.redcross.org.uk/emergencysite/campaign.aspx?id=88917]
[http://www.nowpublic.com/world/haiti-earthquake-death-statistics-update-eu-says-200-000-dead-2559557.html]
20100119
The WIG Index gain +0.70%:
The market made new highest high and thus buy signal was generated.
US stocks are rallying (here).
The EURPLN has touched 4.00 for first time:
The 4.00 is quite strong psychological support; nevertheless, we should watch this currency very close now.
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-gain-as-health-stocks-rally-2010-01-19]
The market made new highest high and thus buy signal was generated.
US stocks are rallying (here).
The EURPLN has touched 4.00 for first time:
The 4.00 is quite strong psychological support; nevertheless, we should watch this currency very close now.
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-gain-as-health-stocks-rally-2010-01-19]
20100118
The WIG Index gain +0.65%:
The market still hovers around its highest high, but is still not able to break it.
Nevertheless, there are bullish signs - positive divergences and rising volume on last few sessions.
The market still hovers around its highest high, but is still not able to break it.
Nevertheless, there are bullish signs - positive divergences and rising volume on last few sessions.
20100116 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN has made lower low (ca.4.02):
The chart looks quite bearish, however we are still above the important support of 4.00 and we still should not generate sell signal.
The CHFPLN chart does not confirm the strong EURPLN's downtrend:
The chart looks quite bearish, however we are still above the important support of 4.00 and we still should not generate sell signal.
The CHFPLN chart does not confirm the strong EURPLN's downtrend:
20100115
The WIG Index fell -0.24%:
Today's session was quite similar to yesterday. We have been moving in the same range (ca.40900 - 41300) without any resolve.
Nevertheless, the uptrend has not been negated and we are holding to our long positions.
There is quite interesting article on USD sentiment (here).
Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/fears-over-us-dollar-resurface-every-10-15-years]
Today's session was quite similar to yesterday. We have been moving in the same range (ca.40900 - 41300) without any resolve.
Nevertheless, the uptrend has not been negated and we are holding to our long positions.
There is quite interesting article on USD sentiment (here).
Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/fears-over-us-dollar-resurface-every-10-15-years]
20100114
The WIG Index fell -0.13%:
The session today was rather meaningless. We are hovering just still above the level of 40900.
We have to simply wait for market actions and we should also note decreasing volume.
The session today was rather meaningless. We are hovering just still above the level of 40900.
We have to simply wait for market actions and we should also note decreasing volume.
20100113
The WIG Index gain +0.44%:
Nothing new can be said about the market right now. We are in primary- and daily- uptrend, quite close to highest high.
Our strategies should be in long positions now.
There is quite interesting article on China economy where author describes China as a bubble.
Sources:
[http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/1261-It-Doesnt-Take-a-Genius-to-Figure-Out-How-This-Will-End.html]
Nothing new can be said about the market right now. We are in primary- and daily- uptrend, quite close to highest high.
Our strategies should be in long positions now.
There is quite interesting article on China economy where author describes China as a bubble.
Sources:
[http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/1261-It-Doesnt-Take-a-Genius-to-Figure-Out-How-This-Will-End.html]
20100112
The WIG Index lost -0.92%:
Today's session was quite bearish; aside from that, nothing new can be said. We are hovering just above the level of last high (40900).
The S&P500 finished in red, thus it might show us direction for tomorrow.
US president Barack Obama wants to raise 120 billion USD through fees on financial institutions to cover losses from Troubled Asset Relief Program (here).
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay7MFz3dlrgM&pos=3]
Today's session was quite bearish; aside from that, nothing new can be said. We are hovering just above the level of last high (40900).
The S&P500 finished in red, thus it might show us direction for tomorrow.
US president Barack Obama wants to raise 120 billion USD through fees on financial institutions to cover losses from Troubled Asset Relief Program (here).
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay7MFz3dlrgM&pos=3]
20100111
The WIG Index gain +1.03%:
The market is slowly moving up. I don't think (subjective opinion) we shall expect more aggressive rally, but the price action still favours the north direction.
Our trend-following strategies should be only long now.
The US interest rates will probably stay low for "quite some time" (here).
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-says-rates-to-stay-low-for-some-time-2010-01-11]
The market is slowly moving up. I don't think (subjective opinion) we shall expect more aggressive rally, but the price action still favours the north direction.
Our trend-following strategies should be only long now.
The US interest rates will probably stay low for "quite some time" (here).
Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-says-rates-to-stay-low-for-some-time-2010-01-11]
20100109 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
Welcome in first currency entry in year 2010!
In 2009, we saw EURPLN going from levels around 4.9 to today's ca.4.1, thus I believe we can say the 2009 was quite volatile. The EURPLN is still in consolidation and not much has changed there:
The CHFPLN chart looks similarly:
Both currencies are on the same levels since second half of 2009 and we are still waiting for a signal.
However, we need to remember we are still in primary downtrend and the odds are we continue to fall.
In 2009, we saw EURPLN going from levels around 4.9 to today's ca.4.1, thus I believe we can say the 2009 was quite volatile. The EURPLN is still in consolidation and not much has changed there:
The CHFPLN chart looks similarly:
Both currencies are on the same levels since second half of 2009 and we are still waiting for a signal.
However, we need to remember we are still in primary downtrend and the odds are we continue to fall.
20100108
The WIG Index gain +0.26%:
The market opened quite high, but lost its gains during session and closed quite neutrally.
We are above 40900 for a third day and that is a good sign so far.
It looks there is not enough strength in this market for a rally; nevertheless, there is also strong support, which prevents market to fall.
Not much else can be said - we are still in primary- and daily- uptrend and we shall take advantage of that.
The market opened quite high, but lost its gains during session and closed quite neutrally.
We are above 40900 for a third day and that is a good sign so far.
It looks there is not enough strength in this market for a rally; nevertheless, there is also strong support, which prevents market to fall.
Not much else can be said - we are still in primary- and daily- uptrend and we shall take advantage of that.
20100107
The WIG fell -1.03%:
The market closed Tuesday's gap and we have experienced losses.
However the oscillators seem to confirm higher high and general technical situation looks much better than few sessions ago.
The only negative thing is continuously decreasing volume.
Nevertheless, as we don't see aggressive buying and we should be still cautious.
The market closed Tuesday's gap and we have experienced losses.
However the oscillators seem to confirm higher high and general technical situation looks much better than few sessions ago.
The only negative thing is continuously decreasing volume.
Nevertheless, as we don't see aggressive buying and we should be still cautious.
20100106
The WIG Index gain +0.46%:
The market holds just above the last high (ca.40900), however the oscillators unwind nicely.
The volume is still quite low; thus, I'm not really sure, we shall expect any fast rally.
Nevertheless, we are in daily- and primary- uptrend and we shall be using our long strategies now.
The market holds just above the last high (ca.40900), however the oscillators unwind nicely.
The volume is still quite low; thus, I'm not really sure, we shall expect any fast rally.
Nevertheless, we are in daily- and primary- uptrend and we shall be using our long strategies now.
20100105
The WIG Index gain +0.68%:
The market has made higher high and thus the buy signal has been generated. We should also note the oscillator's negative divergences have been broken. Volume still stays quite low, thus we shall adjust for slippage in our transactions.
The S&P500 seem to confirm the rally.
The market has made higher high and thus the buy signal has been generated. We should also note the oscillator's negative divergences have been broken. Volume still stays quite low, thus we shall adjust for slippage in our transactions.
The S&P500 seem to confirm the rally.
20100104
Welcome in year 2010! Let's hope it will be better or at least the same as the year 2009.
The WIG Index gained +1.97%:
The daily buy signal has been generated, The WIG Index is again near its highest high and we have chance to break resistance now.
The CCI has broken its negative divergence, however the RSI still stays below last high.
The S&P500 has made higher high and that is a good sign.
The volume today was quite low for such gain; therefore, I would suggest to wait until we cross the resistance level (ca.40900). Nevertheless, we should be prepared to place our orders immediately after breakthrough.
The WIG Index gained +1.97%:
The daily buy signal has been generated, The WIG Index is again near its highest high and we have chance to break resistance now.
The CCI has broken its negative divergence, however the RSI still stays below last high.
The S&P500 has made higher high and that is a good sign.
The volume today was quite low for such gain; therefore, I would suggest to wait until we cross the resistance level (ca.40900). Nevertheless, we should be prepared to place our orders immediately after breakthrough.
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