Happy New Year 2010!
Posts
20090415
15 years ago
20091223 - Merry Christmas
The Christmas are coming, thus there won't be new posts for a few next days.
Anyway, only four stock market's sessions more in this year (28th, 29th, 30th and 31st December) and we are still in consolidation.
I wish you all Merry Christmas!
Anyway, only four stock market's sessions more in this year (28th, 29th, 30th and 31st December) and we are still in consolidation.
I wish you all Merry Christmas!
(picture shamelessly stolen from Decorated House blog)
20091222
The WIG Index gain +0.54%:
The general outlook is more positive, but the risk is still quite big.
Not much can be said - we are waiting for US markets now.
Here you can find interactive graphic representation of US unemployment levels since 2007.
Sources:
[http://www.latoyaegwuekwe.com/geographyofarecession.html]
The general outlook is more positive, but the risk is still quite big.
Not much can be said - we are waiting for US markets now.
Here you can find interactive graphic representation of US unemployment levels since 2007.
Sources:
[http://www.latoyaegwuekwe.com/geographyofarecession.html]
20091221
The WIG Index gained +0.47%:
The WIG Index setup has not changed and we are still facing the uncertainty.
The S&P500 showed us big white candle accompanied with huge volume. Nevertheless, the resistance (ca.1120) has not been broken; therefore we are still only observing the market:
Some 2010's predictions (here). And more predictions (here or here).
Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBRV7FT2UUJ8]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/178959-richard-bernstien-s-top-10-predictions-for-2010]
[http://gielda.onet.pl/jak-wybrac-portfel-akcji-na-2010-rok,18731,3101925,1,analizy-detal (via Google Language Tools)]
The WIG Index setup has not changed and we are still facing the uncertainty.
The S&P500 showed us big white candle accompanied with huge volume. Nevertheless, the resistance (ca.1120) has not been broken; therefore we are still only observing the market:
Some 2010's predictions (here). And more predictions (here or here).
Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBRV7FT2UUJ8]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/178959-richard-bernstien-s-top-10-predictions-for-2010]
[http://gielda.onet.pl/jak-wybrac-portfel-akcji-na-2010-rok,18731,3101925,1,analizy-detal (via Google Language Tools)]
20091219 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
We have seen nice rally on EURPLN chart:
The CHFPLN chart looks similar:
Daily buy signals were generated, however we have to remember the daily trends are not reliable enough.
Nevertheless, we are still in primary downtrend and until downtrend is negated, we shall use those rallies only to get rid of our long positions.
The CHFPLN chart looks similar:
Daily buy signals were generated, however we have to remember the daily trends are not reliable enough.
Nevertheless, we are still in primary downtrend and until downtrend is negated, we shall use those rallies only to get rid of our long positions.
20091218
The WIG Index fell -0.39%:
Another meaningless session, nevertheless it could have been painful for us as few shares' uptrends have been broken today. Technically speaking, we are still in daily and primary uptrend.
Depending on our strategy we might want to re-enter the market after being shaken out or we might wait for trend clarification.
I am afraid there is no good answer to that; however, if your approach does not require to be in the market all the time, you might want to stay in cash, until technical situation clarifies enough.
Another meaningless session, nevertheless it could have been painful for us as few shares' uptrends have been broken today. Technically speaking, we are still in daily and primary uptrend.
Depending on our strategy we might want to re-enter the market after being shaken out or we might wait for trend clarification.
I am afraid there is no good answer to that; however, if your approach does not require to be in the market all the time, you might want to stay in cash, until technical situation clarifies enough.
20091217
Unfortunately, sue to personal reason I was not able to post an entry.
However, we are still in consolidation and not much can be told until we break support or resistance there.
However, we are still in consolidation and not much can be told until we break support or resistance there.
20091216
The WIG Index gained +0.29%:
Not much new can be said - we are still in consolidation and waiting for US indexes. There is quite good article summarizing the US market now (here).
Andy Xie explains current fundamental background and possible outcomes in very interesting paper (here).
Quite straightforward article on bankers approach to risk management (here).
Sources:
[http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/361/]
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe462a30-e9af-11de-9f1f-00144feab49a.html]
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/different-exiting-paths]
Not much new can be said - we are still in consolidation and waiting for US indexes. There is quite good article summarizing the US market now (here).
Andy Xie explains current fundamental background and possible outcomes in very interesting paper (here).
Quite straightforward article on bankers approach to risk management (here).
Sources:
[http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/361/]
[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe462a30-e9af-11de-9f1f-00144feab49a.html]
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/different-exiting-paths]
20091215
The WIG Index finished quite neutrally +0.10%:
Not much have changed as we are still in consolidation.
Generally speaking, trend following strategies are not the best suited for this kind of market and we might have experienced few loses already.
Nevertheless, we cannot say yet if (and when) trend will continue or break; we have to simply wait for market now. The negative divergence and declining volume can give us some clues, but we should react only on price changes.
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend_following]
Not much have changed as we are still in consolidation.
Generally speaking, trend following strategies are not the best suited for this kind of market and we might have experienced few loses already.
Nevertheless, we cannot say yet if (and when) trend will continue or break; we have to simply wait for market now. The negative divergence and declining volume can give us some clues, but we should react only on price changes.
Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend_following]
20091214
The WIG Index gained +0.78%:
We should note quite low volume for several session. Aside from that not much can be told about current situation; we are still in daily and primary uptrend and our strategy should be in long positions exclusively.
In my interpretation we are waiting for US markets to show the future direction.
Citigroup Inc. is about to exit TARP (here). That is the last big U.S. bank repaying its debt to government.
Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap8IF3hz_eBA]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program]
We should note quite low volume for several session. Aside from that not much can be told about current situation; we are still in daily and primary uptrend and our strategy should be in long positions exclusively.
In my interpretation we are waiting for US markets to show the future direction.
Citigroup Inc. is about to exit TARP (here). That is the last big U.S. bank repaying its debt to government.
Sources:
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap8IF3hz_eBA]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program]
20091212 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is showing further bearish signs:
In my opinion, the primary sell signal has not been generated yet and we should wait for confirmed breakout of 4 PLN for 1 EUR.
Also, there is not confirmation on CHFPLN chart; the CHFPLN is still above the important level of 2.65:
Nevertheless, we have to remember, that both currencies are in primary downtrend and further drop is likely.
In my opinion, the primary sell signal has not been generated yet and we should wait for confirmed breakout of 4 PLN for 1 EUR.
Also, there is not confirmation on CHFPLN chart; the CHFPLN is still above the important level of 2.65:
Nevertheless, we have to remember, that both currencies are in primary downtrend and further drop is likely.
20091211
The WIG Index gained +0.75%:
The market closed with small gain, accompanied with low volume. Regrettably, we cannot say anything new of the current technical setup.
For the few last sessions the volume has been quite small, which tells us the marked is undecided which direction to go. In my (subjective) opinion we are waiting for US market to make its move first and clarify the situation.
The Investopedia portal has published quite interesting article on general fundamental reasons to sell (here).
Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/time-to-sell.asp]
The market closed with small gain, accompanied with low volume. Regrettably, we cannot say anything new of the current technical setup.
For the few last sessions the volume has been quite small, which tells us the marked is undecided which direction to go. In my (subjective) opinion we are waiting for US market to make its move first and clarify the situation.
The Investopedia portal has published quite interesting article on general fundamental reasons to sell (here).
Sources:
[http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/time-to-sell.asp]
20091209
The WIG Index fell -1.64%:
We have experienced quite a fall in this week.
However, technically today's session is meaningless and we have to wait for proper market action.
We have experienced quite a fall in this week.
However, technically today's session is meaningless and we have to wait for proper market action.
20091208
The WIG Index fell -1.79%:
Nothing new can be said - technically we are still in daily and primary uptrend; however there are negative signs. Note the bearish negative divergences (quick introduction: part one and part two).
Sources:
[http://lessonsinmadness.blogspot.com/2009/10/oscillator-divergences-part-1-of-2.html]
[http://lessonsinmadness.blogspot.com/2009/10/oscillator-divergences-part-2-of-2.html]
Nothing new can be said - technically we are still in daily and primary uptrend; however there are negative signs. Note the bearish negative divergences (quick introduction: part one and part two).
Sources:
[http://lessonsinmadness.blogspot.com/2009/10/oscillator-divergences-part-1-of-2.html]
[http://lessonsinmadness.blogspot.com/2009/10/oscillator-divergences-part-2-of-2.html]
20091207
The WIG Index fell -0.54%:
We are near the highest high. The gain has been accompanied by low volume and negative divergences are quite bearish. In my opinion, we should be careful now at least.
Nevertheless, we are in daily- and primary- uptrends and only the price should guide our orders.
We are near the highest high. The gain has been accompanied by low volume and negative divergences are quite bearish. In my opinion, we should be careful now at least.
Nevertheless, we are in daily- and primary- uptrends and only the price should guide our orders.
20091205 - EURPLN, CHFPLN, GBPPLN
The EURPLN has generated daily sell signal:
The new lower low has been made. However, we should break the psychological level of 4.00, before we give a primary trend's sell signal.
Jacek Maliszewski has published an interesting EURPLN forecast on his blog (here).
The CHFPLN also generated daily sell signal:
However, the CHFPLN is still above the lowest low (ca.2.65) and we still remember the daily signals are quite misleading.
In summary: both currencies are in primary downtrend, thus the odds are in fall continuation.
The EURPLN has made primary lower low, but we are still above the psychological level of 4.00 and we should break it (in subjective my opinion), before we signal primary sell signal.
On the user request (this post), the GBPPLN analysis is enclosed (please keep in mind, that GBPPLN is not my focus area and such analysis won't appear regularly):
I have to say, that I have difficulties analysing the GBPPLN. It seems to be more volatile than EURPLN and CHFPLN. The average true range has dramatically risen in September, 2008.
The GBPPLN has been continuously falling for quite a while (7.40 in March, 2004) and then rebounced from 4.00 (July, 2008) up to the level of ca.5.60.
Currently, we are at the level of 4.50 and both primary and daily downtrends suggest further fall.
Nevertheless, we should not attach ourself to any forecast. Let's examine two possible scenarios:
Sources:
[http://jacekmaliszewski.blox.pl/html/1310721,262146,20.html?2 (via Google translation tools)]
[http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/forex/how_to/articles/The-4-staples-of-Interpreting-Price-Action-77799.cfm]
The new lower low has been made. However, we should break the psychological level of 4.00, before we give a primary trend's sell signal.
Jacek Maliszewski has published an interesting EURPLN forecast on his blog (here).
The CHFPLN also generated daily sell signal:
However, the CHFPLN is still above the lowest low (ca.2.65) and we still remember the daily signals are quite misleading.
In summary: both currencies are in primary downtrend, thus the odds are in fall continuation.
The EURPLN has made primary lower low, but we are still above the psychological level of 4.00 and we should break it (in subjective my opinion), before we signal primary sell signal.
On the user request (this post), the GBPPLN analysis is enclosed (please keep in mind, that GBPPLN is not my focus area and such analysis won't appear regularly):
I have to say, that I have difficulties analysing the GBPPLN. It seems to be more volatile than EURPLN and CHFPLN. The average true range has dramatically risen in September, 2008.
The GBPPLN has been continuously falling for quite a while (7.40 in March, 2004) and then rebounced from 4.00 (July, 2008) up to the level of ca.5.60.
Currently, we are at the level of 4.50 and both primary and daily downtrends suggest further fall.
Nevertheless, we should not attach ourself to any forecast. Let's examine two possible scenarios:
- We are near the psychological level of 4.50. If we break it (and daily downtrend suggest that), the next important level will be 4.20 (Fibonnaci level of -38.2% and PA's support level) and 4.00 then.
- On the other side, 4.80 seems to be current resistance; breaking it would reverse downtrend and might initiate rally. Confirmed breakout of 5.60 would technically reverse a primary downtrend.
Sources:
[http://jacekmaliszewski.blox.pl/html/1310721,262146,20.html?2 (via Google translation tools)]
[http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/forex/how_to/articles/The-4-staples-of-Interpreting-Price-Action-77799.cfm]
20091204
The WIG Index gained +1.62%:
Obviously, the daily buy signal has been generated. Most of the gains were generated in the last 2 hours of session - if we were quick enough we could have placed the buy orders.
However, the rally has been accompanied with low volume; we shall also keep in mind the negative divergences on RSI and CCI charts.
The currencies have very interesting technical situation now; it will be described in tomorrow's entry.
Obviously, the daily buy signal has been generated. Most of the gains were generated in the last 2 hours of session - if we were quick enough we could have placed the buy orders.
However, the rally has been accompanied with low volume; we shall also keep in mind the negative divergences on RSI and CCI charts.
The currencies have very interesting technical situation now; it will be described in tomorrow's entry.
20091203
The WIG Index gained +0.15%:
The market has broken the last daily high; however as the WIG Index closed below 40400, we don't have buy signal.
However, we are close to the reverse level of the daily trend. Therefore, we shall prepare our orders (but don't place then yet).
Some thoughts about dividends (here).
Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/176153-top-dividend-stocks-to-accumulate-now]
The market has broken the last daily high; however as the WIG Index closed below 40400, we don't have buy signal.
However, we are close to the reverse level of the daily trend. Therefore, we shall prepare our orders (but don't place then yet).
Some thoughts about dividends (here).
Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/176153-top-dividend-stocks-to-accumulate-now]
20091201
The WIG Index gained +0.82%:
Regardless of the today's rally, I am still quite bearish (subjective opinion).
On the positive side, US markets closed quite high. However, the rally is not accompanied by volume and oscillators are giving negative signals.
Nevertheless, if price breaks last daily high (ca.40400), we shall not hesitate, but place the orders again then.
Regardless of the today's rally, I am still quite bearish (subjective opinion).
On the positive side, US markets closed quite high. However, the rally is not accompanied by volume and oscillators are giving negative signals.
Nevertheless, if price breaks last daily high (ca.40400), we shall not hesitate, but place the orders again then.
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