The WIG Index gain +1.26%:
The daily buy signal has been generated (at 42850) and we are again at important level. Crossing primary high (ca.44300) will generate confirming primary buy signal.
Posts
20090415
15 years ago
20100913
Welcome after long break. My secondary project is going quite well, however it still need some work. Therefore, I think the posts could be less regular for a moment.
The WIG Index gain +1.26%:
The daily buy signal has been generated (at 42850) and we are again at important level. Crossing primary high (ca.44300) will generate confirming primary buy signal.
The WIG Index gain +1.26%:
The daily buy signal has been generated (at 42850) and we are again at important level. Crossing primary high (ca.44300) will generate confirming primary buy signal.
20100902
The WIG Index gain +0.55%:
The market again gained some points and we are close to last LH (ca.42850). Breaking (and confirming it later) would generate daily buy signal.
The CCI oscillator suggests the above scenario.
The market again gained some points and we are close to last LH (ca.42850). Breaking (and confirming it later) would generate daily buy signal.
The CCI oscillator suggests the above scenario.
20100901
The WIG Index gain +0.60%:
The market gained some points, however we are still in daily downtrend.
The market gained some points, however we are still in daily downtrend.
20100831
The WIG Index gain +0.55%:
Today's session was quite volatile, however the market made those gains in last 30 minutes.
The overall situation has not changed - we are still in daily downtrend and primary uptrend. Therefore, opening new positions can be risky.
Today's session was quite volatile, however the market made those gains in last 30 minutes.
The overall situation has not changed - we are still in daily downtrend and primary uptrend. Therefore, opening new positions can be risky.
20100828 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still hovering near 4.00:
The CHFPLN chart:
Our expectations of CHFPLN bouncing from 3.00 were rather missed and we are above 3.00 again. Thus, sell signal was not confirmed this time.
That is just another example, how unpredictable Forex market can be.
The CHFPLN chart:
Our expectations of CHFPLN bouncing from 3.00 were rather missed and we are above 3.00 again. Thus, sell signal was not confirmed this time.
That is just another example, how unpredictable Forex market can be.
20100827
The WIG Index gain +0.88%:
Nothing new can be said. We are in daily- downtrend (after yesterday's sell signal) and primary uptrend (support ca.37000)
Nothing new can be said. We are in daily- downtrend (after yesterday's sell signal) and primary uptrend (support ca.37000)
20100826
The WIG Index gain +0.35%:
Today's session was rather calm and we finished at the resistance level (ca.41800). The daily trend is still broken and we shall not open any new transactions now.
Today's session was rather calm and we finished at the resistance level (ca.41800). The daily trend is still broken and we shall not open any new transactions now.
20100825
In few last days I was not able to post anything new (due to my secondary project).
Unfortunately, more delays are expected in near future.
The WIG Index fell -0.58%:
Today's session generated daily sell signal. Also, the RSI and CCI oscillators seem to confirm the breakout.
We should also note the head-and-shoulders pattern, with projected target ca.40700. Therefore, I would say (subjective opinion) we should expect it to go to around 41000.
Sources:
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]
Unfortunately, more delays are expected in near future.
The WIG Index fell -0.58%:
Today's session generated daily sell signal. Also, the RSI and CCI oscillators seem to confirm the breakout.
We should also note the head-and-shoulders pattern, with projected target ca.40700. Therefore, I would say (subjective opinion) we should expect it to go to around 41000.
Sources:
[http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm]
20100821 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still hovering near the important level of 4.00:
The CHFPLN has found support at ca.2.84 and now is again near 3.00:
As usual, it is hard to make any guesses for this exchange rate.
In my (subjective) opinion we should wait and see if CHFPLN rebounces from 3.00 and falls through last low (ca.2.84) - that will generate pretty strong sell signal.
The CHFPLN has found support at ca.2.84 and now is again near 3.00:
As usual, it is hard to make any guesses for this exchange rate.
In my (subjective) opinion we should wait and see if CHFPLN rebounces from 3.00 and falls through last low (ca.2.84) - that will generate pretty strong sell signal.
20100820
The WIG Index fell another -0.49%:
The general situation has not changed; however, we are the edge of generating daily sell signal.
We might also want to note the possible head-and-shoulders pattern, with projected target at ca.40700.
The general situation has not changed; however, we are the edge of generating daily sell signal.
We might also want to note the possible head-and-shoulders pattern, with projected target at ca.40700.
20100819
The WIG Index fell -0.43%:
We had quite volatile session today. In last 10 minutes we have touched the support 42000 and dramatically bounced back.
However, the technical situation has not changed and we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.
We had quite volatile session today. In last 10 minutes we have touched the support 42000 and dramatically bounced back.
However, the technical situation has not changed and we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.
20100818
Few last days I had to devote all my time to my other projects, therefore I was not able to post new charts.
The WIG Index fell -0.24%:
The market is still hovering near support level of 42000 and there is not much new to tell.
We are still in daily- and primary- uptrends. Both oscillators are showing negative divergences, but it is the price we should follow.
The WIG Index fell -0.24%:
The market is still hovering near support level of 42000 and there is not much new to tell.
We are still in daily- and primary- uptrends. Both oscillators are showing negative divergences, but it is the price we should follow.
20100814 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still hovering near psychological level of 4.00:
The CHFPLN has returned to its important level of 3.00:
It will be interesting to observe what CHFPLN is doing.
If it bounces from 3.00 and falls through last low (ca.2.85) it will be obvious sell signal.
The CHFPLN has returned to its important level of 3.00:
It will be interesting to observe what CHFPLN is doing.
If it bounces from 3.00 and falls through last low (ca.2.85) it will be obvious sell signal.
20100813
The WIG Index fell -0.39%:
The session opened quite high (ca. 42600), however we have fallen during a day. and we are again at daily support now.
The daily uptrend is still intact, however we might note negative divergence on CCI.
Interesting paper about diversification (here).
Polish pensioners situation is bad and probably will be worse (here). That is why we now should stress the importance of proper retirement savings in Poland.
Sources:
[http://www.money.pl/gospodarka/wiadomosci/artykul/polski;emeryt;pariasem;europy;moze;byc;jeszcze;gorzej,152,0,654744.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm]
The session opened quite high (ca. 42600), however we have fallen during a day. and we are again at daily support now.
The daily uptrend is still intact, however we might note negative divergence on CCI.
Interesting paper about diversification (here).
Polish pensioners situation is bad and probably will be worse (here). That is why we now should stress the importance of proper retirement savings in Poland.
Sources:
[http://www.money.pl/gospodarka/wiadomosci/artykul/polski;emeryt;pariasem;europy;moze;byc;jeszcze;gorzej,152,0,654744.html (via Google Language Tools)]
[http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm]
20100812
The WIG Index gain +0.29%:
The level of 42000 has acted as support for today's session.
Therefore, the daily sell signal has not been generated and we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.
The level of 42000 has acted as support for today's session.
Therefore, the daily sell signal has not been generated and we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.
20100811
The WIG Index fell -1.06%:
The market fell several points and now is on edge of daily sell signal.
We should wait for further market actions with our stop-loss orders in place.
The market fell several points and now is on edge of daily sell signal.
We should wait for further market actions with our stop-loss orders in place.
20100810
The WIG Index fell -1.21%:
The market has fallen, but the price is still above last higher low (ca.42100).
Therefore we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.
The market has fallen, but the price is still above last higher low (ca.42100).
Therefore we are still in daily- and primary- uptrends.
20100809
The WIG Index fell -0.54%:
The WIG Index fell few points, however we are still in daily uptrend.
The WIG Index fell few points, however we are still in daily uptrend.
20100807 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN rate still hovers just below 4.00:
In my (subjective) opinion is too early to call sell signal (even daily).
The primary support level is at 3.80.
The CHFPLN has :
The CHFPLN is readily descending and we are well under psychological 3.00.
I would rather expect CHFPLN to stay in that area or fall further, however forecasting currencies is very hard task and it is rather guess-game.
In my (subjective) opinion is too early to call sell signal (even daily).
The primary support level is at 3.80.
The CHFPLN has :
The CHFPLN is readily descending and we are well under psychological 3.00.
I would rather expect CHFPLN to stay in that area or fall further, however forecasting currencies is very hard task and it is rather guess-game.
20100806
The WIG Index fell -0.04%:
Today's session has little of technical significance. We are still in primary- and daily- uptrends and our positions should be long only now.
Today's session has little of technical significance. We are still in primary- and daily- uptrends and our positions should be long only now.
20100805
The WIG Index fell -0.23%:
The market has made higher high today and we are still advancing. Both oscillators and volume seem to confirm the rally.
The market has made higher high today and we are still advancing. Both oscillators and volume seem to confirm the rally.
20100804
Unfortunately, due to work related to my secondary project I was not able to post any new chart over few last days.
The WIG Index gain +0.28%:
As per chart we are continuing the rally. Both oscillators seem to confirm the gains.
The WIG Index gain +0.28%:
As per chart we are continuing the rally. Both oscillators seem to confirm the gains.
20100731 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still hovering in 4.00-4.20 area:
The CHFPLN has broken the psychological barrier of 3.00:
The important support has been broken and that are good news for polish mortgage owners.
However, the CHFPLN still remains in primary uptrend unless 2.60 is taken.
The CHFPLN has broken the psychological barrier of 3.00:
The important support has been broken and that are good news for polish mortgage owners.
However, the CHFPLN still remains in primary uptrend unless 2.60 is taken.
20100730
The WIG Index fell -0.36%:
The last week Thursday's buy signal is still valid. Our positions should be only long as per daily- and primary- uptrend.
The last week Thursday's buy signal is still valid. Our positions should be only long as per daily- and primary- uptrend.
20100729
The WIG Index gain +0.47%:
There is nothing new to say. For few last session we are hovering near 43000.
The odds are we will continue the rally.
There is nothing new to say. For few last session we are hovering near 43000.
The odds are we will continue the rally.
20100728
The WIG Index fell -0.46%:
As can be seen in chart the market bounced form Fibo level of 161.8%.
Nevertheless, it does not change long term view - we are still in daily- and primary- uptrend.
As can be seen in chart the market bounced form Fibo level of 161.8%.
Nevertheless, it does not change long term view - we are still in daily- and primary- uptrend.
20100727
Unfortunately, I was not able to post a new char due to work related to my secondary project.
Not much changed today, the market is still in daily- and primary- uptrend.
Not much changed today, the market is still in daily- and primary- uptrend.
20100724 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN does not show much of a change as we are still in 4.00-4.20 area:
The CHFPLN is still hovering near 3.00:
There is not much to say as the rates are hovering near their psychological levels.
Nevertheless, we shall observe markets closely now.
Only 7 of 91 tested banks in EU failed recent stress tests (here or here). Five of those were Spanish banks.
Sources:
[http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100723/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_stress_tests]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/seven-of-91-eu-banks-fail-stress-test-face-4-5-billion-capital-shortfall.html]
The CHFPLN is still hovering near 3.00:
There is not much to say as the rates are hovering near their psychological levels.
Nevertheless, we shall observe markets closely now.
Only 7 of 91 tested banks in EU failed recent stress tests (here or here). Five of those were Spanish banks.
Sources:
[http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100723/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_stress_tests]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/seven-of-91-eu-banks-fail-stress-test-face-4-5-billion-capital-shortfall.html]
20100723
Note: I have switched to Ubuntu, thus I have to yet learn the available charting tools under Linux. Today's chart has been produced by Qtstalker.
The WIG Index gain +0.32%:
We can see the WIG Index generated buy signal yesterday and confirmed it on today's session. That gives us hope for rally as the primary uptrend has not been broken. Both oscillators (RSI, CCI) seem to confirm the gains.
The swing target level - Fibo 168% has been marked on chart.
The WIG Index gain +0.32%:
We can see the WIG Index generated buy signal yesterday and confirmed it on today's session. That gives us hope for rally as the primary uptrend has not been broken. Both oscillators (RSI, CCI) seem to confirm the gains.
The swing target level - Fibo 168% has been marked on chart.
20100722
I've gone through main system reinstallation and I am currently looking for a good charting program for Ubuntu (any suggestions?).
Thus, next few charts will be quite simplistic.
The WIG Index gain +1.43%:
The daily buy signal has been generated. Therefore, technical analysis is telling us to enter the polish market.
However, for other markets, the PA are not looking good (here).
Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/broken-uptrends/]
Thus, next few charts will be quite simplistic.
The WIG Index gain +1.43%:
The daily buy signal has been generated. Therefore, technical analysis is telling us to enter the polish market.
However, for other markets, the PA are not looking good (here).
Sources:
[http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/broken-uptrends/]
20100721
The WIG Index gain +1.93%:
The WIG Index has gained some points today, however it was not enough to generate daily buy signal.
The WIG Index has gained some points today, however it was not enough to generate daily buy signal.
20100720
The WIG Index fell -0.70%:
The technical situation still looks very static.
Quick summarization:
Note: I am entering important phase of my secondary project. Therefore, there might be breaks in daily posts.
Sources:
[http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE66J21U20100720]
The technical situation still looks very static.
Quick summarization:
- we are still in primary uptrend and daily downtrend;
- RSI and CCI oscillators are showing positive divergences;
- volume is decreasing;
- S&P500 is above 1000 and there was no sell signal generated.
Note: I am entering important phase of my secondary project. Therefore, there might be breaks in daily posts.
Sources:
[http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE66J21U20100720]
20100719
Unfortunately, due to work related to my secondary project, I was not able to post a new chart.
20100717 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still floating between 4.00 - 4.20:
The CHFPLN is near technical (and psychological) level of 3.00:
The odds are CHFPLN will bounce from this level and continue upward. However, we shall also remember that CHFPLN never stayed above 3.00 for long (this post).
The currency market is never simple as it seems to be. In my (subjective) opinion Forex market should be used only for hedging our positions.
The CHFPLN is near technical (and psychological) level of 3.00:
The odds are CHFPLN will bounce from this level and continue upward. However, we shall also remember that CHFPLN never stayed above 3.00 for long (this post).
The currency market is never simple as it seems to be. In my (subjective) opinion Forex market should be used only for hedging our positions.
20100716
The WIG Index fell -0.58%:
Again, there is not much we can say before index breaks (and confirms) last high (ca.41400) or last low (ca. 38900). However, we shall note the positive divergences on both oscillators.
Again, there is not much we can say before index breaks (and confirms) last high (ca.41400) or last low (ca. 38900). However, we shall note the positive divergences on both oscillators.
20100715
The WIG Index gain +0.16%:
The index is still below last daily high (ca.41400), thus we still have to wait.
The index is still below last daily high (ca.41400), thus we still have to wait.
20100714
The WIG Index gain +0.48%:
The market in on the edge of generating daily buy signal.
Technically speaking we should consider opening long positions as primary uptrend has not been broken.
There is lot of fear now in the market; however the technical approach allows us remove personal feelings from trading. We don't know where market decides to go, however if we play with proper money management, the odds of profiting will be on our side.
There is an interesting paper about market momentum (here).
Sources:
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/2010/07/13/impet-jednej-sesji/ (via Google Language Tools)]
The market in on the edge of generating daily buy signal.
Technically speaking we should consider opening long positions as primary uptrend has not been broken.
There is lot of fear now in the market; however the technical approach allows us remove personal feelings from trading. We don't know where market decides to go, however if we play with proper money management, the odds of profiting will be on our side.
There is an interesting paper about market momentum (here).
Sources:
[http://blogi.bossa.pl/2010/07/13/impet-jednej-sesji/ (via Google Language Tools)]
20100713
The WIG Index gain +0.69%:
The market is still in consolidation and there is not much to say.
We shall note the positive divergences on both oscillators.
The market is still in consolidation and there is not much to say.
We shall note the positive divergences on both oscillators.
20100712
The WIG Index gain +0.90%:
Nothing new can be said about current setup. Technically we are still in primary uptrend, however the daily trend remains broken.
We might note the positive divergences on both oscillators, but we shall look mainly at price actions.
Nothing new can be said about current setup. Technically we are still in primary uptrend, however the daily trend remains broken.
We might note the positive divergences on both oscillators, but we shall look mainly at price actions.
20100710 - EURPLN, CHFPLN
The EURPLN is still moving between 4.00 - 4.20:
The CHFPLN is touching the psychological level of 3.00:
Technically speaking, the odds are the CHFPLN will rebounce from this level.
However, I would advise to take a look at long term chart (this post) as technical situation is not as clear as it seems to be.
The CHFPLN is touching the psychological level of 3.00:
Technically speaking, the odds are the CHFPLN will rebounce from this level.
However, I would advise to take a look at long term chart (this post) as technical situation is not as clear as it seems to be.
20100709
Unfortunately, I was not able to post new chart today.
However, no new signals were generated and we are still hovering just above 40000.
However, no new signals were generated and we are still hovering just above 40000.
20100708
The WIG Index gain +0.25%:
The WIG Index is still hovering near psychological level of 40000. Not much else can be said, before we see more decided market actions.
The WIG Index is still hovering near psychological level of 40000. Not much else can be said, before we see more decided market actions.
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