20091130

The WIG gained +1.28%:

The marked gained some points over average volume and we are near the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the last swing now. However, the daily uptrend is has been broken and we should rather protect our gains, than place any new orders.

 Right now we shall wait for market action - everything else is just guesswork.

20091128 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

Technically speaking, the EURPLN has generated daily buy signal:

The CHFPLN also shows daily high breakout (and daily buy signal as well):

We shall remember, that few last daily signals were false and the currencies' daily trends are not reliable.
Also, as per primary downtrend, we shall rather liquidate our long currency positions.

20091127

The WIG Index lost -0.49%:

The daily sell signal has been generated accompanied with volume's hike. Therefore, all my active orders were cancelled, until daily uptrend is restored.
The market opened with a huge gap and we have been covering it for the rest of the session. It also seems several stop-loss orders were triggered. The various media are giving the Dubai credit issues as the reason for today's drop (here or here).
The US market closed quite low (S&P500 -1.72%).

In my (subjective) opinion we should be careful now. We haven't broken the primary uptrend as of today; however, the market has been giving us the bearish signs for some time (negative divergences)

Good article on costs of postponing investments (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/175496-is-dubai-s-default-a-black-swan-event]
[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBhwAC1GSJEg&pos=5]
[http://investopedia.com/articles/pf/09/costs-of-financial-procrastination.asp]
[http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:gaps_and_gap_analysi]

20091126

The WIG Index lost -1.51%:

The market quite rapidly has lost its value. The volume was low, but nothing sure can be said now. We have to simply wait for market actions.

Barton Biggs' interview about economy (here and transcript).

Few interesting remarks about China's growth (here).

Sources:
[http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/22/china-growth-gdp-economy-opinions-columnists-gordon-g-chang.html]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/175282-barton-biggs-on-the-economy]
[http://www.charlierose.com/download/transcript/10724]

20091125

The WIG Index fell -0.18%:

Today was quite neutral session with low volume.
Even so, we are still in uptrend, those negative divergences look very bearish.

The US market (S&P500) has finished close to its highest high (here), thus it may set a direction for tomorrow.

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-end-up-materials-front-rise-2009-11-25]

20091124

The WIG Index fell -1.10%:

Nothing new can be said about current setup.
We are still in primary & daily uptrend and our strategies should be still in long positions. Nevertheless, we should not forget about bearish negative divergences.

20091123

The WIG Index gained +2.08%:

The rally was quite rapid and we probably should move our stop-loss orders up. However the volume was at most average and negative divergences are well visible.

Quite bearish outlook on US economy and stock market (here).

Times Online published an interesting outlook into Goldman Sachs company culture (here).

Sources:
[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6907681.ece]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/174683-global-markets-in-review-share-prices-too-far-ahead-of-economic-reality]

20091121 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN has bounced from primary low:

The CHFPLN behaves similar, however its drop was not so dynamic:

The daily swings in currencies can be quite misleading.
We should remember, that in technical approach, we shouldn't play against primary trend. Therefore, all rallies now can be only used for liquidating our long positions.
Nevertheless, we should always watch the price charts closely and be ready to act as soon as market trend reverses.

20091120

The WIG Index gained +0.59%:

Situation has not changed and we are still in long positions, until our stop-loss orders tell us to get out.

Let's also take a look at global overview:

Regardless, how we see the current economic situation, the current rally is quite dynamic and recovery is significant.
Lately, we did cross the Fibo 38.2% level and as per Fibonacci theory we have reached the minimum level for correction and we might be facing it.
The primary uptrend is still intact. Nevertheless, there are signs suggesting trend reversal (oscillators' negative divergences, decreasing volume), therefore we should be careful now (but don't panic either).

20091119

The WIG Index lost -1.60%:

Not much new can be said about current situation. We are still in uptrend, but oscillators and volume are giving us negative signs.

In summary, we are still in uptrend and the sell signal has not been given yet.

20091118

The WIG Index lost -1.81%:

The volume hiked on today's drop and that is not a good sign. The oscillators are also showing clear negative divergences.

I'm quite sceptical on the current 9-months rally continuation.
However, emotions do not pay and until the last low is broken we are in uptrend.

Australia seems to be doing very fine during those crisis times (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/173775-australia-what-recession]

20091117

The WIG Index fell -0.15%:

The market stayed above last high (ca.40300), but the negative oscillators' divergences have not been negated yet and this rally is not backed up with volume.

Therefore, I'm still waiting with confirming buy signal.

20091116

The WIG Index gained +2.52%:

Today's rally was impressive. However, it was not accompanied by volume hike and there is no confirmation is oscillators. Thus, I am still reluctant to signal buy and let's better wait for uptrend confirmation.

US market is rallying (here).

SeekingAlpha published a interesting article about dividends (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/173361-global-markets-in-review-stocks-still-in-rally-mode-for-now]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/173228-dividend-grouping-for-dividend-income]

20091116 - Blog's immigration

Welcome everybody,

Today the Kisiel2's Blog has been migrated to a new site:

http://kisiel2.blogspot.com

The main reason for an immigration are features of Blogger, better integration with Google and my curiosity to try an alternative blogging framework. I hope the readers will like it.
All entries were imported; however, moving images is a more tricky and WordPress will stay as an image source for all older posts for now.

Kindly thanks to Wordpress.com allowing us to use their platform and great portal!

20091114 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN has broken daily low of 4.15:



The CHFPLN is below daily support of 2.75:



Both currencies have generated sell signals during this week. However, considering a number of false signals lately, those signals can also be misleading.

We should remember the primary downtrend and use those rallies are only to liquidate our long positions (if we still have any).

Note from 2009/11/14:
Lately I have received a mail with alternative interpretation and I believe it is worthwhile to visualize it here:



Of course, we can use trendlines' breakthroughs to generate signals; however in my opinion this technique is too subjective.
Let's take a look how many trendlines (and false breakthroughs) can be drawn:



I would rather rely on Price Action model, which generally leaves less space for interpretation (nevertheless, marking highs/lows can be tricky).
Those are my methods, but if something works good for you then use it. Eventually, every trader has to develop its own strategy.

20091113

The WIG Index fell -1.11%:



Today's retracement can be interpreted as a preparation for taking the last high. On the other side, both oscillators are still under trendline and that is a bearish sign.
Nevertheless, before we actually go through resistance or support, our forecasts are only guesswork.

20091112

The WIG Index gained +0.88%:



Nothing new can be said about current situation as we are very close to last high, yet still below it. US market closed in red (S&P500) and that could be a negative sign.
Nevertheless, we should not act before confirmed breakout.

The Financial Graph & Art published a very interesting paper on history of FED (here).

Sources:
[http://www.financialgraphart.com/history_of_fed_free.pdf]

20091110

The WIG Index gained +0.50%:



We are quite close to last high (ca.40300), crossing it will generate primary buy signal.
Current rally is quite dynamic, but nothing can be said before we cross this level.

There is an interesting article on America's inflation.

Note:
There is no session tomorrow, due to national holiday.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/172262-the-unsustainable-lie-of-inflation]

20091109

The WIG Index gained +3.01%:



We have experienced nice rally today with increased volume (but still small). However, we are still below last high and we have to wait and see if the swing breaks last high.

Warren Buffett is investing in railroads (here).

StockCharts are publishing detailed technical analysis course by Chip Anderson (here). It is not finished yet, but this series is quite interesting.

There is nice blog entry how to interpret volume divergences (here).

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/171975-how-warren-buffett-is-smarter-than-the-g20]
[http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/ta101]
[http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/inside-a-volume-divergence]

20091107 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

The EURPLN generated a daily buy signal during this week:



Similarly, daily buy signal has been also generated on CHFPLN chart:



Obviously, the October's sell signal (this post) was a false one and we can see daily uptrend now (of course this situation can change quite fast). Nevertheless, note the primary direction is still downwards and we should not trade against primary trend.

Note for Gregorski:
I also believe that Polish Zloty is still under-valued considering Poland's economic situation, regardless to current rally. However, I have learned that feelings are usually bad idea in this kind of business, especially in Forex market. Therefore, I rely almost exclusively on stop-loss orders and money management.
You can find exact value forecasts here or here.
By the way - if anyone would know the future exchange rates for currency, he/she could use some the more speculative instruments and be very rich quickly.

20091106

The WIG Index fell -0.87%:



The general overview is still the same: daily and primary uptrend, bearish negative divergences and decreasing volume. Therefore, we have to wait for next market action.

Gold hits record high of 1100USD/oz (here).

Sources:
[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-reaches-new-record-above-1100-2009-11-06]

20091105

The WIG Index gained +1.87%:



We have experienced quite a rally today.
It was obviously important for day traders, however it does not change the general situation and we simply have to wait for proper market actions.

The Association of Individual Investors in Poland published an interesting study of individualtraders (here, Polish only).

Sources:
[http://www.sii.org.pl/analizy/badania,i,rankingi,sii/ogolnopolskie,badanie,inwestorow,-,obi,2008.html (Polish only)]

20091104

The WIG Index gained +2.03%:



The market rallied. Volume was small and oscillators are quite bearish.
However, the general situation has not changed and nothing new can be said.

20091103

The WIG Index fell -2.35%:



Today's volume was quite low. We shall also note the negative divergence (lower low) on RSI chart, thus both oscillators are bearish now. Also, some publishers are quite bearish now  (here).
Nevertheless, technically we are still in uptrend and important levels are still holding. We shall watch the market carefully now and act only on confirmed signals.

Sources:
[http://kuczynski.blogbank.pl/2009/10/28/coraz-wiecej-sygnalow-ostrzegawczych (via Google Language Tools)]

20091102

The WIG Index fell -0.36%:



The volume today was quite low and the close is quite neutral in relation to Friday. However, the CCI oscillator is clearly showing us negative divergence and that is not a good sign.

Thus, I would suggest to trade carefully until market re-confirms the North direction.