20080728

WIG continued its rally, but it's now hovering near the 50% Fibo (beginning in May, 2005; end in Jul, 2007). Market forecasting is hard now. Potential resistance at ca.41.5k, support at ca. 40150:



WIG20 under important support (2669, low from Jan) and also under the Fibo 38.2% of this move. USA on red, therefore we will probably stay under this resistance, but we should also expect a drop tomorrow:



In Jun, the investment funds' total stock value has dropped about 13,5% (ca. 11400k PLN) and the WIG index has dropped ca. 11,75%. That gives us average 2% total stock portfolio reduction across the funds. That is an anomaly in their investment approach - so far the investment funds were aggressively buying during the biggest market fails (Nov 2007, Jan 2008). Please check Holder news for more information.

About two weeks ago, Secretary Paulson, Chairman Bernanke and SEC Chairman Cox banned short-selling of 19 financially related stocks and this number could be possibly extended. Personally, I don't like this kind of intervention into the free (?) market system, however it can have an stabilizing effect on US indexes.

Sources:
[http://www.holder.com.pl/fm.shtml?id=4136&fm=11154&c=41250000010]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/87599-on-short-selling-covering-and-respecting-the-trend?source=d_email]