20090214 - EURPLN, CHFPLN

During this week, the EURPLN has made daily low at 4.40:

eurpln_20090214



Depending on your timeframe and size of position you might want to move trailing stop to this level. As per uptrend continuation, the odds favor breaking the 4.70; however we shall as always observe the market continuously.

The similar situation is in CHFPLN chart:

chfpln_20090214



The CHFPLN is still below high from 2004 (3.13), therefore we have to wait for resolution:

chfpln_w_20090214



The BigMac Index's basket consists of only one item - McDonald's Big Mac, which is produced in about 120 countries. The theory of purchasing-power parity state, that dollar should buy the same amount of identical items in all countries. The Big Mac PPP is the exchange rate that would mean hamburgers cost the same in America as abroad. Comparing actual exchange rates with PPPs indicates whether a currency is under- or overvalued (here).
Regardless how ridiculous and imperfect this may sound, the Big Mac Index is widely cited by economists around the world as a real world measurement of purchasing power parity.

As per the Big Mac Index, the USDPLN is overvalued ca.40% (here, as of 4th February 2009):

big_mac_index_20090204



Sources:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index]
[http://www.economist.com/markets/bigmac/index.cfm]
[http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13055650]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity]

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