The new lower low has been made. However, we should break the psychological level of 4.00, before we give a primary trend's sell signal.
Jacek Maliszewski has published an interesting EURPLN forecast on his blog (here).
The CHFPLN also generated daily sell signal:
However, the CHFPLN is still above the lowest low (ca.2.65) and we still remember the daily signals are quite misleading.
In summary: both currencies are in primary downtrend, thus the odds are in fall continuation.
The EURPLN has made primary lower low, but we are still above the psychological level of 4.00 and we should break it (in subjective my opinion), before we signal primary sell signal.
On the user request (this post), the GBPPLN analysis is enclosed (please keep in mind, that GBPPLN is not my focus area and such analysis won't appear regularly):
I have to say, that I have difficulties analysing the GBPPLN. It seems to be more volatile than EURPLN and CHFPLN. The average true range has dramatically risen in September, 2008.
The GBPPLN has been continuously falling for quite a while (7.40 in March, 2004) and then rebounced from 4.00 (July, 2008) up to the level of ca.5.60.
Currently, we are at the level of 4.50 and both primary and daily downtrends suggest further fall.
Nevertheless, we should not attach ourself to any forecast. Let's examine two possible scenarios:
- We are near the psychological level of 4.50. If we break it (and daily downtrend suggest that), the next important level will be 4.20 (Fibonnaci level of -38.2% and PA's support level) and 4.00 then.
- On the other side, 4.80 seems to be current resistance; breaking it would reverse downtrend and might initiate rally. Confirmed breakout of 5.60 would technically reverse a primary downtrend.
Sources:
[http://jacekmaliszewski.blox.pl/html/1310721,262146,20.html?2 (via Google translation tools)]
[http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/forex/how_to/articles/The-4-staples-of-Interpreting-Price-Action-77799.cfm]
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