20080801

ast session changed really nothing in big picture. WIG bounced from Jan low, nevertheless it's still uptrend. Probably the first few sessions in this week will show a medium-term market sentiment:



WIG20 is more bullish, just under the long term trendline:



Those trendlines are strong. I don't expect indexes to just cross those quickly. Theoretically, both indexes are in good to enter short-sell positions. Nevertheless, last two weeks have showed the market strength, therefore I would not risk money on that.

It seems that US economy is still having bad time. The weekly unemployment initial claims level spiked to 448k, an increase of 44k from previous weeks' revised figure of 404k. Full report can be found here. I would also mark something else - many US companies employ also a number of people in branches abroad and the weakening dollar does not help to reduce the foreign staff cost.

Sources:
[http://ows.doleta.gov/press/2008/073108.asp]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/88542-analyzing-economic-data-the-employment-report]
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/88479-the-market-as-a-house-of-cards]