20080804

The medium-term uptrend on the WIG Index has been slightly broken, but it's still in 3% margin. The Jan low acts as strong resistance; support is on ca. 40900 (gap from 29 Jul):



The WIG20 Index has similar situation:



In next few weeks we shall be able to see how the strong the major trend still is. We shall not be trying to guess where trend begins or ends; instead, we should only invest when the trend continues.

More on US economy - we know the rising unemployment, but it also seems the average hourly earnings are getting down. For few nice charts check here. Data360 provided us with more detailed statistics here - just focus on last 2 or 3 years, but also remember that CPI math has been altered several times since. The real average hourly earnings are often referred as consumer spending leading indicator (try to get Ahead of The Curve, J.H. Ellis explains it in human readable form).

Also, if someone is interested in Fibonacci, a nice introduction by A.Farley can be found here.

Sources:
[http://seekingalpha.com/article/88746-slack-labor-market-in-pictures]
[http://www.amazon.com/Ahead-Curve-Commonsense-Forecasting-Business/dp/1591396913/ref=sr_11_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1217839398&sr=11-1]
[http://www.traderslog.com/fibonacci-tricks.htm]