The EURPLN was traded as high as 4.70 during this week, currently the exchange rates are ca.4.50. Unfortunately, last weekly low is 3.87 and before crossing that level we won't be able generate long-term sell signal. Therefore, we might want to draw the Fibo levels (as per picture); as per Fibo theory, the price might well retract to 4.18 (plus some error margin) and it's still a correction.
The similar situation is on daily CHFPLN chart:
However, the CHFPLN is much more interesting now. The CHFPLN is near the highest high (3.14) since its inception in 1993 (weekly chart):
Crossing it and confirming it (it's still in error margin) will generate strong buy signal.
Unfortunately for polish mortgage owners, the uptrend in CHFPLN is well visible and situation is dangerous. It also seems few of Central Europe emerging countries have the same problem (here).
There is an interesting video from Bloomberg (here).
Sources:
[http://givanomics.blogspot.com/2009/01/swiss-clouds-hanging-over-central.html]
Posts
Hi,
ReplyDeleteyou was right with the EUR/PLN anlaysis, but the correction is there, now. I am still in the game (short) and can win my trade if the correction will continue for a couple days. I also have increased my short position. Hopefully we will see a red weekly bar on Friday next week.
Regards,
StaTrader
Hi,
ReplyDeletethe EURPLN seems to be periodically negatively correlated with WIG Index:
http://kisiel2.wordpress.com/files/2009/02/wig_eurpln_correlation_20090206.png
I don’t think it’s useful in longer term, but maybe you can watch the WIG Index also?
Hi,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the hint with the WIG Index. I will have a look to it.