We can hope this rally won't end soon and target level (ca.33400), however at first we should cross the important level of 29600, preferably also confirmed by high volume. Today's gain was huge, but we shall be still careful.
Warren Buffett seems to be optimistic in long term (five years), but bearish in short term (five months) - article here.
Some more gloom & doom predictions for 2009 (here).
And Brian Shannon's video here.
There is an interesting article (here), where author come to conclusion that yearly stocks return are almost purely random. Let's see how it looks in last few decades for polish market:
Years' returns for DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ indexes are taken from 1stock1 site (here). Correlation coefficiency near zero mean the variables are almost independent; values close to 1 or -1 mean there is linear relationship (with positive or negative direction). Correlation is well explained in Wikipedia.
The polish market was very active in his first years (ten-fold gain in second year), therefore correlation values between US markets and WSE were low. Since 1998, we can note high correlation to US market.
The near zero correlation values for year and year+1 for those index show there is almost no correlation between preceding year's return and current year's return. Therefore, statistically speaking, we shall not expect any rebounce in 2009 only because 2008 year had great loss.
Sources:
[http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Buffett-put-20-bln-work/story.aspx?guid={C55B33D2-BB7A-4636-B38F-5F1202B44E42}]
[http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/A-review-stock-market-2008/story.aspx?guid={C804E9C8-2C7C-4E33-84E6-9A056024E3AE}]
[http://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_142.htm]
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment